I went 2-4 on my game predictions last week, and I’m here to take accountability. After all, the 1st step to recovery is admitting that you have a problem. Before I go into my breakdowns of the divisional games, let’s take a look back at where I went wrong. For starters, I should have known the Chargers were going to blow it based on how confident I was. The Chargers have found the most Ludacris (LUDA) ways to lose in the biggest moments ever since I was a child, yet somehow, I thought it would be different last weekend. My thought process was that Jim Harbaugh had us playing so disciplined, that there was no way we could shoot ourselves in the foot. Well, they ended up going full Plaxico Burress, turning over the ball 4 times, 5 if you count the 4th down we didn’t get in the third. The main lesson to take away from this? Cursed franchises are cursed until they aren’t. The same way that the favorites are the favorites until they aren’t, teams with the Charger’s history should be predicted to lose in clutch moments until they don’t. So I let my fandom creep in and influence my prediction on this one, but what about the other games I got wrong?

The Packers were doomed the second that they fumbled on the opening kickoff. By the way, side note: not that it mattered because they ended up losing by multiple possessions, but the Packers 1000% recovered the fumble here. My dad and I thought we were going insane when they ruled it Eagles ball, and for it to stay that way after the replay? Yeah, this game was over after 1 play. Where I went wrong here was, and this hurts my soul to say as a big fan of his, but I overestimated just how good Jordan Love was. To me, Jordan Love was someone I viewed as a fringe top 5, for sure top 10 QB when in reality he is closer to fringe top 10. He had played turnover free football for the last 7 starts he had entering the playoffs, but then proceeded to throw 3 interceptions on the road against Philly. The main thing I take away here though is that coaching matters, but if 1 roster is significantly more talented than the other, that team will probably win. The Eagles had a better running back, better wide receivers, better offensive line, better defensive line, better linebackers, and better secondary. I thought the gap between these units from both teams definitely favored the Eagles, but I didn’t think the gap was as big as it was. I still think that Matt LeFleur is a better coach than Nick Siriani and still believe that Jordan Love is better than Jalen Hurts. But when the talent discrepancy is as big as it was, it doesn’t matter how much of an advantage the other team has at coach and QB. Remember this, as this is a lesson to keep in mind later on when I discuss Ram-Eagles.

Honestly, I still feel very good about having picked the Buccaneers to beat the Eagles. A team that had won its division each of the past 4 seasons going up against a team making the playoffs, with a rookie QB, that hadn’t won a playoff game in 20 years? It seemed so obvious that Tampa was going to find a way to win, especially at home. Through 3 quarters, I still felt very confident. But as I wrote last week, Jayden Daniels is legit the best rookie QB the NFL has ever seen. The poise late in games is something you would expect to see out of a 10-year veteran, not someone with less than 20 career starts. Keep in mind, Tampa head coach Todd Bowles is someone who has been coaching NFL defenses since the year 2000. This is someone who has seen it all. He was most notably the defensive coordinator during the Buccaneers super bowl run with Tom Brady, when he held Patrick Mahomes, the most accomplished QB of the 2020s, to just 9 points, in what is still Mahome’s only Super Bowl loss. So this is someone who knows how to scheme up a good game plan in 1 game, win or go home scenarios. Yet, Jayden Daniels seemed comfortable for most of the night, especially late in the 4th. Is there a lesson to be learned here? I’ll be honest, no. Jayden Daniels is a special talent and sometimes, you just got to give props and move on. Now for the last game I got wrong, where there are definitely lessons to be learned.

The Rams beat the Vikings 27-9 on Monday in a game that was so disappointing considering the expectations I had. I would have been fine if the Rams won, but the fact that they handled business the way they did, was shocking. The Vikings defense could not generate negative plays for the Rams, something that was their signature all season long. And as I wrote about Sam Darnold, he completely shriveled up in the moment, much like me trying to take a piss outside in the winter. Sam was a nervous mess all night, playing with such low confidence considering how well he played all season long. There are lots of lessons to learn from this one. Similar to the Chargers, a cursed franchise is cursed until it isn’t. The Vikings are the Chargers of the north, and I should have known they were going to find a way to blow this game against a Super Bowl winning duo in Matt Stafford and Sean McVay. Specifically, when a team that relies on turnovers goes up against one of the smartest head coach-QB combos in the NFL, they are likely not going to generate turnovers. But to me, the main thing to take away is that when a quarterback who has been a career bust suddenly has 1 good season, maybe, just maybe, it is a bit of fool’s gold. It’s funny, because when the Vikings were 5-2 coming off 2 straight losses, I thought at that moment that they were going to start reeling and that Sam Darnold was going to go back to playing awful. However, they proceeded to win 9 straight games, so I felt that I would be ignorant to not take it seriously. Those 2 losses were to the Lions and the Rams, and who did the Vikings lose to in back-to-back weeks to end their season? The Lions and the Rams.

Okay, so I have confessed my sins and am now praying to the football gods for forgiveness this week. I have learned lessons that I will take into account when predicting this week’s matchups, so we got to have a better week this week. After all, I know ball, right? I mean, I wouldn’t have been losing parlays all last year… okay so maybe I don’t know ball. But hey, I’m learning! So now that the weekend formerly known as super wild card weekend is over, it’s on to the best football weekend of the year. The best 8 teams left, 6 hours of football each day. It’s so beautiful and euphoric, like the feeling of that first spoonful of ice cream or the first spoonful of… okay moving on. The point is, this weekend is what being a football fan is all about: sitting on a couch for hours, eating shitty food, and screaming like a caveman when the big strong man runs past the other big strong man into the end zone. I’m so jazzed up to watch these games, and I’m sure you are too. So let’s waste no more time, please enjoy the 2025 NFL divisional round preview.

Texans at Chiefs

The Texans beat the Chargers last weekend in a game that was filled with chaos. The reward for this? Having to go on the road to play the back-to-back defending champs, who are coming off of 3 weeks of rest. Let’s take a look at how the Texans beat the Chargers for a second. As much as I want to put all the blame on the Chargers for shitting themselves last weekend, the Texans still had to come out and win that game. There were 7 combined turnovers between the teams, which is actually going to be the formula to beating Kansas City. While they do need to limit their own turnovers, if this game ends up being sloppy it should play more into the Texans favor. The Chiefs, like the Chargers, are a very disciplined team that loves to control the clock and rely on their defense to win games. If you can get them out of that discipline and make them feel more of a sense of urgency to score, you have an outside shot of pulling off the upset. So how do they accomplish that? On offense, the Texans need to play it safe early. Establish the run game on early downs to create 2nd and manageable, where you can then either run again or make short, quick throws to your receivers. The Chiefs are a top 5 team in blitz percentage, so getting the ball out quickly will be essential early on. Create long, physical drives that tire out the defense and keep Patrick Mahomes on the sideline. You will need to play like this for at least a quarter and a half, that way the chiefs start to slowly keep their safeties forward. Then, once you feel that they are starting to expect nothing but runs and dink and dunk passing, you will need to have the confidence and the play design ability to ring up a deep play action pass, ideally to Nico Collins. All it takes is 1 big play in the first half for the defense to keep that in mind for the rest of the game, which will impact the way they play defense for the 2nd half. Rinse and repeat this formula in the 2nd half and pray that it will be enough to win. Something to think about is that this Chiefs team, despite their record, is not as good defensively as they were last season. Not to say they are bad, but they are much closer to league average than they are top 5. There are vulnerabilities you can exploit here, so if you can win the line of scrimmage battle, there’s a decent chance you will be able to pull off this game plan.

On defense, I don’t really have any notes for the Texans. As long as you are able to play within the game script I just drew up and not fall behind by multiple possessions, they should be able to play the exact type of defense they played all year. Rush 4, drop back in coverage, and don’t allow the Chiefs to beat you deep. While Mahomes has been good at being patient and slowly driving the ball down the field, you also have been good at stopping these types of offenses, so trust that your strength is better than their strength. Will Anderson and Danielle Hunter were on fire last week against the Chargers and will need to play just as well in order to win this one. Mahomes is awesome at extending the play by scrambling behind the line of scrimmage and seems even more likely to take off running in win or go home scenarios. It is essential that the Texans find a balance between making Mahomes uncomfortable while also containing him in the pocket. It’s a daunting task, especially considering there will be between 1-100 plays where Chiefs left tackle Jawaan Taylor does a false start that goes uncalled by the refs. It happens every single week and somehow it goes uncalled, something I personally think the league has something to do with, because otherwise it makes zero sense. Back to the Texans though, they need to be patient on defense and trust their players to make tackles, win the line of scrimmage battle, and force the Chiefs to punt the ball. Then, like the offense, once you feel that the Chiefs are antsy for a big play, and eventually they will be, you need to blitz and try to force a turnover. If you can even generate one turnover in this game, you significantly increase your chances of pulling off the upset. I’m very glad I broke this down, and while I’m actively rooting for this scenario to happen, let’s finally get to discussing how the Chiefs are going to win this game.

The defense of Kansas City has not been as good this year, but they still have Steve Spagnolo as their defensive coordinator. He has had a lot of time to game plan how to stop a Houston offense that is lackluster anyways, so I would be shocked if Houston scored more than 20 in this game. There are 2 points of emphasis here: first, you need to stop the run on early downs. The Texans love to run on 1st and 2nd down, they were top 10 in the league in doing so. If you can stop the run on early downs and force the Texans into obvious passing situations, they become very easy to defend since Nico Collins is the only person on their roster that can beat you deep. Speaking of Nico, I expect the Chiefs to treat him with the respect that a top 5 receiver like him should get. He should have safety help on every pass play because you want anybody else to beat you but him. Do John Metchie III and Robert Woods strike fear in your heart? Nope, didn’t think so. If you put the Texans in obvious pass situations and take away Nico Collins, that is a great formula for generating turnovers and making life even easier on Patrick Mahomes.

 On offense, Expect Kansas City to try to establish their run game early. If they can get the run game going, it will make Mahomes even more dangerous than he already is. I expect to see a trick play or 2 from the Chiefs in this game, as it will be a great way to test the discipline of this Texans defense. Whether it’s a reverse, a flea flicker, or working the screen game, they should try to pull off some funky plays to hopefully create some explosives against a defense that typically does not give up big plays. The screen game in particular intrigues me, as the Texans pass rushers will be eager to try to get after Mahomes, something you can turn against them with a well-timed screen. Other than that, I expect this to be a pretty boring game plan from Andy Reid. They know that as long as they don’t turnover the ball, they will be able to out execute Houston and win this game. They simply have a way better offense than Houston does, and Mahomes is Mahomes. Coming off this much rest, with this much time to plan for Houston, I would be stunned if the Chiefs lost this game. Then again, the media was saying the same thing about the Texans vs. Chargers game last week and look what happened. There is a major difference between the Chargers and Chiefs though: One team is a snakebitten franchise that seems to always screw up in the game’s biggest moments, and the other is coming off back-to-back championships and looking to pick up a 3rd straight. I’m taking the Chiefs to win this game, final score 24-14.

Commanders at Lions

The Commanders are coming off yet another late game-winning drive from Jayden Daniels, something he has done multiple times this season. You aren’t going to dominate this Lions team, so the key will be for them to make it a 1 possession game with 5 minutes to go. If you can do this, you have a decent shot at being able to pull off the upset. On offense, they will need to find creative ways to get the running game going. The Lions know you want to run the football and will make it a point of emphasis in practice this week to stop the run. You can get around this by utilizing screen passes, read options, RPOs, and counters to throw the defense off and force them to have to think for a second on each play. Once you get them to this point, you can then return to regular inside or outside zone hand offs that should be more effective now that the Lions can’t predict your play calls. Running the ball will be key for the Commanders to win, as they will need to keep the Lions offense on the sideline while giving their defense lots of rest between drives. Expect the Commanders to utilize more pre-snap motion here, and if they see the Lions are playing man defense, trust Jayden Daniels to air the ball deep to Terry McLaurin like he’s done all season long. Daniels has brought you this far, so they should put a lot of trust in him to make big plays in this one. I want to see them be aggressive in 3rd and long, 4th and short situations since the Lions defense isn’t exactly the 85’ Bears. You can attack the Lions at all 3 levels, so let Jayden Daniels have the chance to make clutch plays. He has been one of the best QBs in the clutch despite him being a rookie, so there should be no reason to think it would change in this game.

On defense, they will need to lean into the variance game. Goff had 3 multi-interception games this year, so it isn’t out of the question that he could have a similar game here. The Lions will beat you by 1000 paper cuts if you let them, so expect lots of blitzes from the Commanders defense. Worst case you give up some big plays, which even then means less time your defense is on the field. If it works out though, you can generate negative yardage plays that put the Lions in obvious passing downs, which is where you are more likely to generate turnovers. If you can generate turnovers and let the Commanders offense control the clock, you have a great chance at pulling off the upset. Even if this game turns into a shootout because of this strategy going wrong, you have to trust that Jayden and the offense can keep up, something they have been able to do in multiple games this year. While the Commanders have impressed me by making it this far, I think there is a really good chance that their season ends here.

For the Lions offense, they just need to continue doing what they have been doing all year long. I think we see an early deep shot to Jameson Williams in this game. Doing so will help open up the field for Amon-Ra St. Brown and Sam LaPorta, who are great at turning a short pass into big gains. Also, this Lions fanbase will be eager to make some noise, and nothing fires up a crowd like a big play early in the game. You may think it’s silly, but I am a big believer in home field advantage. This Lions fan base is starved for a championship, so if you can get the crowd engaged early, I think they will be a legit weapon for you all night long, making it harder for the Commanders offense to get their plays off. Other than that, I think we see a heavy dosage of ground and pound, especially with David Montgomery returning for this game. If they establish the run early, the Lions play action game should be on full display. This passing game is at its best when they perform play action, with weapons like Williams, Amon-Ra St. Brown, and Sam LaPorta being able to catch the ball and make big plays in the open field. My main concern with Detroit is that they may be feeling themselves a little too much at some point and try to pull off a trick play. While it’s all fun in games in the regular season when you get to play the Bears, this is a Commanders team that won 12 games in the regular season and is coming off a playoff win. If they think they can pull off some fun play where they try to get the ball to Penei Sewell or call a hook and ladder, they got another thing coming. Mainly, with the history this franchise has in the playoffs, I just wouldn’t want to do anything to test the football god if I don’t have to. You can win this game by keeping the game plan relatively simple, as the Commanders are an average defense at best. You should be able to run the ball very effectively against this team, so dominate the Commanders at the line of scrimmage and play smash mouth football.

On defense, the Lions need to stop the run early. The Commanders are going to want to control the clock and keep your offense on the sideline, so sell out on the run to prevent them from doing so. Daniels has been really good all season long, but he is a rookie QB on the road at the end of the day. Get the Commanders into obvious passing situations where Daniels will have to make multiple great plays in order to keep the drive going. A running game is a quarterback’s best friend, the Lions of all teams should know this, so stopping the run will be key to slowing down the Commanders. When the Commanders are passing the ball, make sure that anyone but Terry McLaurin beats you. McLaurin isn’t quite a top 5 receiver, but I would say he is fringe top 10. The dude is talented and makes big plays deep, so make sure there is always safety help over the top of him. Jayden Daniels has been pretty good at throwing deep and beating blitzes, so I would rush 4 most of the night and just focus on rallying to make tackles and keeping everything in front of you. If Daniels is able to get his deep ball going, you are going to be in trouble. While he may generate 1 or 2 big plays in this game, I don’t expect it to happen often. The Lions should be in total control from start to finish here, so give me the Lions to win here 38-24.

Rams at Eagles

Out of the 3 obvious underdogs this weekend, the Rams to me have the best chance to win. The defense has hit its stride the past 5 games, allowing only 12.6 points per game during this stretch. They also have a Super Bowl winning duo in Sean McVay and Matt Stafford who have seen their fair share of big games, so going on the road to Philadelphia shouldn’t intimidate them. Let’s stick with the Rams offense, how can they move the ball on the best defense left in the playoffs? I think you see the Rams play their kitchen sink game in this one. They are going to call trick plays, they are going to run lots of pre-snap motion, and they are going to pull out play designs that they haven’t shown all season. I think we see Puka Nacua get a few reverses and screens early to try to engage him, as Quinyon Mitchell is going to be all over him in this game. Utilizing pre-snap motion to either get him the ball on handoffs or bubble screens will be essential, as you need Mitchell to worry about what Nacua is doing before the snap. You can rinse and repeat this formula for Kyren Williams, who you also need to get involved early. The Eagles defensive line is very good at defending the run, so you have to find ways to get Williams the ball outside and with momentum. Once you pull off these short plays successfully, it should open up opportunities for fake screens and play actions, which is where you can hopefully pull off just enough explosive plays to keep the defense honest. This is where Cooper Kupp can excel, which you will need an all-time legacy game from him in order to pull off the upset. He had a very poor season this year for his standards, but still is capable of giving you a vintage Kupp performance from time to time. Even if he doesn’t put up huge numbers, if he can just make a couple of big time plays, he should open up the field more for players like Tyler Higbee and Demarcus Robinson. If the Rams can find the balance between big plays and slowly moving the ball, you should be able to score just enough to win, considering how well the defense has played down the stretch.

The last time the Rams played the Eagles, Saquon had 26 carries for 255 yards and 2 touchdowns. Needless to say, that can’t happen again if the Rams want to win. Expect them to go all out in stopping Saquon, even if it means they give up some big plays in the passing game. You need to dare Jalen Hurts to beat you, as he has had a less than spectacular season for his standards. Speaking of Hurts, expect the Rams to blitz him heavily in an attempt to make him uncomfortable. Specifically, they will utilize the corner and safety blitzes in an attempt to get Jalen Hurts outside of the pocket, where he is not as successful of a passer. While I do think the Rams defense will play well in this one, and while I do trust Stafford and McVay in big games, I still think the Eagles have to be the favorites here.

On offense, you know that the Rams are going to be dead set on stopping Saquon if you are the Eagles. Because of this, I expect them to utilize quick screens and RPOs to get your playmakers the ball early and often. The linebackers will be playing up, so the middle of the field should be pretty vulnerable in this one. You still want to run Saquon heavy obviously, but since the Rams know that all too well, you will have to find other ways to slowly move the football, which is where screens and RPOs do a good job of acting like run plays despite them being passes. If they are somehow stopping the run and the short passing game, don’t be afraid to air it out. Hurts was an MVP caliber quarterback who put up massive stats in the super bowl just 2 years ago. While he has had a down year, that guy is still in there. At some point, you have to trust him to make a big play, especially when you have great deep threats in A.J. Brown and Devonta Smith. Although maybe you don’t necessarily need Hurts to be the one that throws deep. I think that there is a chance we see Saquon throw a pass in this game. For starters, he is going to have a lot of attention on him, so tossing him the ball to the outside and letting the receivers run down the field should work, hypothetically. Also, the Eagles just haven’t seemed to trust Hurts to make big passes down the field as of late, so this can be a different way for them to stretch the field vertically. One final thing to note for my theory is that Kellen Moore has been getting interviews for head coaching jobs this week. You think he won’t be eager to prove that he can come up with creative play calls? I’m not saying this is likely to happen, but I think if there was a team to try a play like this all weekend long, it would be the Eagles. It wouldn’t be necessary more than likely, but damn would it be fun. In reality, we more than likely see the Eagles offense continue to do what it has done all year long: run the ball, create long drives, limit turnovers, and rely on their defense to win them the game.

Speaking of the defense, I don’t really have too many notes here. They have been the best defense in the NFL for the entire 2nd half of the season, and dominated last week against a Packers offense that to me has way more juice than this Ram’s offense does. The key to this game will be making Stafford uncomfortable. To me, interior pressure will be the best way to do so. It will interfere with his vision on most plays, and you have the perfect personnel to pull this off. The Eagles defensive line has been dominant all year long, so I expect them to be able to rush 4 on most plays and still win the battle at the line of scrimmage. If for some reason the Rams do a good job of preventing the pass rush from getting home with 4, don’t be afraid to blitz! This Eagles secondary is much better than last year’s and should be able to hold their own if you ask them to play 1 on 1 coverage, even against wide receivers as good as Kupp and Nacua. You also have very versatile safeties and linebackers, so if 1 unit blitzes, the other should be able to hold their own in coverage. I don’t think it will need to come to that, but If Stafford looks good on the 1st couple of possessions, I would do whatever it takes to make him look uncomfortable. At the end of the day, I want to pick the Rams the same way that I wanted to pick the Packers last week. Hurts and head coach Nick Siriani don’t inspire confidence, especially compared to Stafford and McVay, but ultimately, the rest of this roster is just that more talented than the Rams. I’m taking the Eagles to squeak by in a low scoring game, 21-17.

Ravens at Bills

How often do we get a matchup between the two betting favorites for MVP in the playoffs? I credit Bill Simmons for breaking this down on his pod earlier this week. He mentioned Brady-Manning a few times did this, he also mentioned Montana-Elway in 1990, Elway-Farve in 1998, Brady-Mahomes in 2021, and the Lamar-Mahomes game last year. I would also throw In Montana-Marino in 1985, Brady-Warner in 2002, and Brees-Manning in 2010, with an honorable mention to Brady-Wilson in 2015, Montana-Esiason in 1989, and Bradshaw-Staubach in 1976 and 1979. No Fran Tarkenton mentioned here because he proceeded to go 0-3 in the Super Bowl, which is the same reason why Aikman-Kelly matchups don’t qualify for me either. The point is, games like this just don’t happen often. I truly hope you watch this game on Sunday and don’t take it for granted. Okay, now that I have gotten through the historical significance of a matchup like this, let’s break down who will win.

The Ravens enter this game having played their best football of the season down the stretch, averaging 32.6 points per game on offense while holding opponents to just 11.4 points per game in the last 5 games. In other words, the Ravens have been playing like the Marlboro man, just absolutely smoking anyone they have had to play. Now, there is reason to be cautious with Baltimore. For starters, they are on the road in Buffalo, where the temperature is likely to be under 20 degrees at kickoff. That is some good ole’ fashioned playoff football weather if I’ve ever heard of it. They also will likely be without their star receiver Zay Flowers, Lamar’s best playmaker in the open field. I think if the Ravens are smart, they will embrace both of these things by playing lots of jumbo formation and pounding the ball down the Bills’ defense throats.  When these teams played in the regular season, Derrick Henry had 24 carries for 199 yards and 2 touchdowns. Zay Flowers only had 1 catch in this game, so you have to hope that you can recreate this formula to minimize the loss of Flowers. If you are going to throw with Lamar, do so using play action passes. If you can make those Bills’ linebackers and safeties creep forward, you should be able to generate explosives in the passing game through the use of play action. While Lamar is definitely capable of airing the ball out and winning the game, why would you ask him to do this when you have such an amazing run game? These are the exact type of games you signed Derrick Henry for: Playing other teams with elite offenses, you want to run the ball, control the clock, and keep the other offense on the sidelines. Also, with a QB as talented as Lamar, who can win a game by airing out, just imagine how well he can do when you don’t ask him to do too much? Jackson threw just 18 passes when they played the Bills in week 4 but had a QB rating of 144.9. For those that don’t know, 158.3 is considered a perfect QB rating, so Lamar played about as well as he could possibly play, despite only throwing 18 times. So now you know what the Ravens need to do on offense, let’s talk about what they need to do on defense.

The Ravens defense has an impossible task in front of them: slow down Josh Allen and the 2nd highest scoring offense in the NFL. I actually think the Ravens defense is pretty well equipped to slow down Josh Allen (famous last words). Part of it is like I mentioned in the last paragraph, but the Ravens offense will be able to chew the clock and keep the Bills on the sidelines. On a day where the temperature is in the teens, this will make it very difficult for the Bills to find a rhythm, on offense. In terms of what the actual defense can do, I think we see Kyle Hamilton, the Ravens All-Pro safety, get the task of guarding James Cook all night long. James Cook had his best season this year, which continued in a dominant performance over a good Denver Broncos defense last week in the Bills blowout win. The Bills love to use Cook in the passing game in addition to his tremendous running ability, so expect Hamilton to get the assignment of locking him down. Even if it means playing 1 less safety deep, or having 1 less linebacker on the field, this will be essential for the Ravens to slow down Buffalo. While Josh Allen is very good in the pocket, he is even more dangerous when he moves outside with a head of steam. Whether it’s scrambling for a first down or throwing a 40-yard bomb while on the run, Allen is terrifying outside of the pocket, so expect the Ravens to tell their defensive ends to contain him in the pocket rather than do whatever it takes to chase a sack. I also think you will see them opt to have a QB spy on the field on lots of plays, someone whose sole purpose is not letting Allen scramble for a first down. He is still going to get some of these plays because he is one of the most athletic QBs of all time, but if you can do your best to limit them, you have a good chance at winning. Now let’s swing it to the other side of this MVP battle.

For the Bills offense, getting James Cook involved early and often will be important. Expect lots of motions, screens, tosses, and counters to James Cook to get him the ball in space. He is a special playmaker on the outside and is truly the engine that makes all the other Bills weapons more effective. If Cooks gets going and you can establish the play action pass, it will help the Bills receivers create separation downfield against Baltimore’s defensive backs, something that should turn into huge plays for Buffalo. While the strategy in which you get others involved is all well and good, ultimately is going to take a Superman type effort from Josh Allen if the Bills want to win this game. Look for lots of designed QB runs, boot leg play actions where he gets going to the outside, and RPOs where he has the ability to dictate the play based off the defensive coverage. Josh Allen is capable of a performance like this on his own, but drawing up plays specifically to give him confidence will go a long way towards him pulling off those types of plays that make you stand up and yell when watching at home. We know what the Bills offense is capable of, but what about the defense?

I mentioned earlier how the Bills are 2nd in scoring. Well, the Ravens are 3rd. For me, the Bills simply don’t have the personnel to stop Derrick Henry. So, I expect the Bills to lean into variance by sending heavy pressure and blitzing on damn near every play. Are you that scared of the idea of Rashod Bateman and Nelson Agholor making big time plays in the open field and ripping off long touchdowns? Not really. Are you scared of Derrick Henry averaging 6 yards a carry, getting better and better as your defense gets more tired and tired? Yes, that is absolutely terrifying. Lamar has also struggled quite a bit in the playoffs throughout his career, so you hope that by sending pressure you can force him into a couple of bad decisions that result in turnovers and short field position for your offense. Even if you do give up big plays in the passing game due to being too aggressive, it just means less time your offense has to sit on the sideline in the cold weather, which isn’t necessarily the worst thing. Expect the Bills to play with zero high safeties often in this game, in hopes of forcing negative plays for the offense, which in return limits Henry’s impact and forces the Ravens to throw the ball more. I really wish I didn’t have to pick a winner here, as this is probably as close to a coin flip as we are going to get this entire playoff run. But gun to my head, life on the line, I have to make a pick, I’m taking the Ravens to narrowly beat the Bills 24-21 in a game where King Henry reminds everyone why he is the best running back in the NFL. Thanks for reading my divisional round preview, make sure to share and subscribe for email alerts for whenever I post. I will be posting tomorrow and Monday morning to recap the Saturday and Sunday games, so be on the lookout for that, and again, thanks for reading.