Wow, what a day of football that was. But before I get into recapping yesterday’s games, I wanted to take a sneak peak to next Sunday. I predicted half the games correctly this weekend, which is better than wild card weekend but still disappointing. Honestly, I think there’s a good chance that I go 0-2 next weekend too. The fun thing about the 1 game, win or go home playoff format is the unpredictability. There’s always going to be favorites going into the games, and most of the time they win. But every once and a while, you watch something magic happen. A bad play call from a coach can kill a drive. A seemingly random fumble can screw your team. A bad penalty can send your team spiraling. A missed kick can break your damn heart. There are so many seemingly random things that end up deciding the outcomes for these super important games. You play the games 7 times like a baseball or basketball series, the favorite is going to win more often than the NFL, as the larger sample size makes it less likely that these seemingly random moments impact the outcome. If you play 7 times, the Rams, Ravens, Lions, and Texans probably win enough games to at very least make it a good series, if not win outright. The NFL doesn’t do this though, and it leads to way more drama. Look at March Madness: even though I follow the NBA more than I do college basketball, I find the college basketball playoff format to be way more entertaining than the NBA playoff format. The 16 seed had never beaten the 1 seed, and rightfully so. The 1 seed is hypothetically a top 4 team in the nation, while the 16 seed is at best 61st, but probably worse since a lot of the time they are the automatic conference bids. This means they won a conference that has a lower talent level than a conference like the SEC. A team that finishes in the bottom half of the SEC team standings is often better than the 1st place team from the MAC. Gosh, I can’t wait for March. Back to football though, the 1 game format adds to the drama, which plays into our emotions. The stress, the relief, the thrill, the heartbreak. Emotions play a big part in the fan experience, and I also believe they play a big part in the player experience as well.

NFL players should already be highly motivated by the fact that they are paid a lot of money to play a game they played as children in front of thousands of fans who adore them, broadcasted to millions of fans all over the world. They should be even more motivated since this is the playoffs, and their season can end with every game. They should also be motivated by the chance to be the best team in the league; winning the Super Bowl is the ultimate team accomplishment the sport has to offer. When you win a championship, your legacy for the rest of your life is that you are the ultimate competitor who plays his best in the most high pressure moments. That’s pretty badass dude. Yet despite all those reasons to be motivated, these athletes are always searching for that extra bit of motivation to draw on late in games, when their bodies are sore and their wills are weak. Thinking about the matchups next weekend, there are two teams that have opportunities to get revenge. The Commanders have been dominated by the Eagles lately, going 4-12 in their last 16 games. The Commanders have been the Eagles’ little brother for a while now, and this is their chance to show that they are the better franchise. It’s very rare that division rivals play in the conference championship, the chance to send your biggest rival home is a special opportunity. For the Bills, they have gone 0-3 against the Chiefs in the playoffs during the Mahomes-Allen era. Multiple times the Bills have had some of their best teams in franchise history, only to get the hearts ripped to shreds by a late game clutch moment from Patrick Mahomes. Next weekend, they get a chance to get revenge for years of pain, stopping the Chiefs from what would be a historic repeat. I haven’t picked winners yet, and I definitely need to do more research into how these teams matchup against each other, but I am definitely going to consider the motivation factors when predicting the outcome. We knew going into yesterday’s games that the Chiefs and Commanders had moved on, let’s look at what the Eagles and Bills did to join them.

Rams at Eagles

Rams at Eagles was such a glorious snow game. Early on, you didn’t see too much snow and it looked like maybe there was a chance that there would be clean weather conditions for this game. But as the game went on, the snow came down harder and harder, turning the field into a winter wonderland. The Los Angeles Rams were clearly uncomfortable to me, being used to playing in 70 degree weather throughout the season. There was a discourse on Twitter after the game about wanting all stadiums to be domes, as it is unfair to warm weather teams to have to play in these types of conditions. I am biased as a fan of a team from Southern California, obviously I would love it if they played all the games in domes. But I also understand the other side of this argument: there is something beautiful about watching a bad weather game. It’s often sloppier, which leads to more randomness in the outcome of the game. It also requires teams to run the ball way more, in a league that has shifted more heavily into the pass as time has gone on. I actually think the best debate I have heard on the subject was between Kurt Warner and the co-hosts of the podcast Pardon My Take. I added a hyperlink in the last sentence, you can go watch the 13 minute clip for yourself if you want, but I’ll summarize it for you. For context, Kurt Warner is a hall of fame quarterback who made 4 Pro Bowls, 2 All-Pro teams, won 2 regular season MVPS, and won a Super Bowl in 2000. He also played 11 of his 12 seasons for teams that played in domes, so just like me, he may be a little biased here. Essentially, Kurt argues that in a playoff setting, you should try to prevent the game being impacted by things outside of the player’s control. He also says that weather is an element that teams that play in domes or warm weather can’t properly prepare for, so it gives the home team that is used to that weather an unfair advantage. The co-hosts of Pardon My Take acknowledge that there is some validity in what Kurt is saying, but argue that bad weather games are a big part of the fan experience, as the snow games are aesthetically pleasing and also provide games that often contain different strategies than games played in fair weather. If I have to put my bias aside, I definitely agree with this argument. It just seems to make games more unpredictable, which players may hate, but I love.

Back to this game, the Eagles are definitely a team built to play in bad weather, ranking 2nd in total yards and touchdowns from the run, as well as 1st in rushing attempts. They want to control the clock, limit turnovers, and slowly move the ball down the field in an effort to make the opponent’s defense more exhausted than a tween after pulling their first all-nighter. Factor in that the Rams allowed 250 rushing yards to the Eagles in the regular season, and the fact that it was snowing throughout the game, the script was definitely set for an Eagles win. The Eagles had 3 runs that went for longer than 40 yards, all of which resulted in touchdowns. This added to them averaging 5.3 yards per rush, something that is very hard to overcome. Yet somehow, the Rams almost did. They sacked Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts 7 times for a combined loss of 63 yards, including a safety that gave the Rams 2 points and the ball. Whenever the Rams seemed out of it, their defense would make a play that gave their offense another opportunity to score. On offense, the Rams were moving the ball well. Quarterback Matthew Stafford was 26/44 for 324 yards, 2 touchdowns to 0 interceptions, and averaged 5.9 yards per attempt, more than double Jalen Hurts. They picked up 2 more first downs from the Eagles, 52 more yards, had 3 more trips to the red zone, and converted the same amount of 3rd and 4th downs that the Eagles did. The Eagles seemed to have clinched the win when Saquon Barkley ran the ball 78 yards for a touchdown with 4:36 left to play. This put the Eagles up 28-15, which meant the Rams had 4:36 to score, get the ball back, and score again. Matthew Stafford seemed to be up for the task, leading a 10 play, 70-yard drive in only 1:48 to make it 22-28 with 2:48 left to play. Stafford went 6/9 on the drive, making elite throws despite the less than ideal conditions for an LA quarterback. Even with this impressive display, all the Eagles needed to do was secure a couple of first downs, and this game would be over. Since Saquon had dominated all game long, everyone watching assumed that the Eagles were just going to run the rest of the game. They ran on the first play for a gain of 3, but then decided to call a play action pass on the next play. This was a disaster for the Eagles, as Hurts got sacked for a loss of 12 yards. This made it 3rd and 19, where they proceeded to run the ball with Saquon for a gain of 6, making it 4th down. The Rams used all 3 of their timeouts each play to stop the clock, which meant the Eagles were punting the ball to the Rams with 2:35 left on the clock, down by 6, with an opportunity to win the game. Matthew Stafford has 49 career game-winning drives, the most since he entered the league in the entire NFL. It looked like he was primed for number 50, as he drove all the way down to the Eagles 13-yard line, with the highlight being a beautiful 37-yard pass to Puka Nacua. A couple of plays after that, they were faced with 3rd and 2 on the 13-yard line, so close to securing a win. The Rams hike the ball, Stafford drops back, and defensive tackle Jalen Carter breaks through the line to bring down Stafford, resulting in 4th and 11 from the 22. The Eagles’ defense was dead tired throughout the 4th quarter, but Carter found a way to get the best effort from himself in that moment, exploding past the Rams lineman for a sack. On 4th and 11, the Rams dropped back to pass, season on the line, and Carter got through again, forcing Stafford into an inaccurate throw that went out of bounds, ending the Rams season. I mentioned all those stats about the Rams offense outperforming the Eagles, but there was a stat I forgot to mention: turnovers.

 The Eagles played conservative football all game long, either running the ball or throwing short passes that offered little risk. This is a strategy that they had executed all season long, but even more so in this game. Take out the 3 massive touchdown runs, and the Eagles only gained 166 yards on an average of 2.9 yards per play. They know that if they keep being persistent with the run, the opposing defenses will get tired and give up a few big plays despite them playing risk free football, and that’s exactly what happened for them today. They also know that their defense will give them extra possessions, either by getting stops or turnovers. While they couldn’t stop the Rams offense, they did force 2 fumbles, leading to 6 Eagles points in a game they won by 6. As we saw with the Commanders-Lions game the night before and multiple playoff games the week prior, if you win the turnover battle, you will often win the game. This was the major theme of the day to me, as turnovers ended up being the thing that cost the Ravens in their loss to the Bills.

Ravens at Bills

This was the best matchup of the divisional round heading into the weekend and boy did it live up to the hype. There was a little bit of snow in this one, but not nearly as much as the previous game had. Still, it definitely had an impact on how both teams played, as we saw the 2 favorites for MVP throw the ball only 47 times combined. Both teams knew they had to run the ball effectively to win, which is exactly why I picked the Ravens to win. The Ravens finished the year 2nd in rushing attempts and 1st in total yards and average yards per carry. They also had Derrick Henry, the best running back not named Saquon this year. He has a history of playing better as the weather gets cold because unlike Barkley, who is more swift and agile, Henry is a bruising running back. He is 6’3’’, 250 pounds, and has the ability to be as fast as anyone in the league once he gets a full head of steam. The Ravens executed their game plan, running the ball 30 times for 176 yards on 5.9 yards per carry. Knowing that the Ravens wanted to run the ball well and seeing that they did, you figure the only reason the Bills could have won was on the back of an amazing Josh Allen game. However, Allen only had 127 passing yards on an average of 5.8 yards per attempt, well below his regular season averages. He also only had 20 yards on 2 yards per carry, so the Ravens did an excellent job of stopping him on the ground. The Bills running backs did well, but as expected they didn’t do as well as Baltimore, only averaging 4.1 yards per carry on their way to 147 yards. The Ravens also got 3 more first downs, outgained the Bills by 143 yards, and went 7-10 on third downs to the Bills 5-1. So how did they manage to lose?

The Ravens turned over the ball 3 times, each time seeming to be worse than the last one. First, Lamar threw a pick in the 1st quarter that was just a terrible throw and a bad decision. Still, it was early, and there was a lot of time to overcome that play. Then, in the 2nd quarter, Lamar fumbled the ball during a sack attempt, which was then returned all the way to the Ravens 24-yard line. This set the Bills up for an easy 4 play, 24-yard drive that resulted in a Josh Allen rushing touchdown. This put them down 21-10 going into half, which isn’t ideal, but again, there was still a whole half of football to play. The real killer came in the 4th quarter, with the Ravens losing 24-19. They had the ball and were driving on the Bills when Lamar threw a pass to Mark Andrews that looked like it would result in a 1st down and a gain of 15-20 yards. However, instead of turning and running up field, Mark Andrews decided to run sideways, resulting in him being stripped from behind, with the Bills recovering the fumble. This led to a Bills field goal that made it 27-19. The Ravens were still going to have a chance to win, getting the ball back with 3:30 left to play. All they needed to do was score a touchdown and convert on the 2-point conversion to tie the game. This was Lamar’s legacy drive, a chance to show that he is not a playoff choker. The biggest drive of his career, and Lamar respond by going on an 8 play, 88-yard drive that took only 1:56 off the clock, resulting in a 24-yard touchdown pass to Isaiah Likely for a touchdown, The hard part was done, now all the Ravens had to do was get the 2-point conversion to tie the game. Teams convert close to 50% of their 2-point conversions, and with the Ravens failing earlier, I felt pretty good about their chances. With Lamar and Henry, all the Ravens had to do to me was call a read option. Either the defense commits to Henry and Lamar keeps it for an easy TD, or they try to prevent Lamar from rushing, which would result in Derrick Henry rolling his way into the end zone. For some reason, the Ravens decided to throw the ball, something that blew my mind. However, it was hard to argue with the result, as Mark Andrews got wide open in the right corner of the end zone. Lamar threw it to him, and everyone at home thought we were about to see a tie ball game. In a cruel twist of fate, Andrews, the player who fumbled earlier in the 4th, dropped the pass wide open in the end zone. It was stunning to watch; my brother and I yelped like a dog when you accidentally step on its tail. The Ravens lost the game on yet another miscue, a tragic ending to a season that was filled with such promise. I had predicted the Ravens to win the Super Bowl, as the Ravens had the best rushing duo in Lamar and Henry, which is usually the way to win come playoff time. I mean shit, it’s literally how the Eagles won earlier that day. Unfortunately, the Ravens made too many mistakes to overcome, and just like that, the most dramatic weekend in sports had come to a close in the most dramatic way imaginable. The full emotions of sports were on display again: the stress, the relief, the thrill, the heartbreak.