Plus, my awards for the 1st half of the season.

1. Do we see a Jimmy Butler trade?

Jimmy Butler was just suspended again for the Miami Heat, this time for missing the team flight after a game. This brings him up to 9 games suspended by the Heat, something I never could have predicted coming into the year for Mr. Heat Culture himself. He has completely thrown in the towel on playing for Miami and is trying to pout his way into playing for another team. The problem is, who is going to give up a package that the Heat would want in return? For starters, all the shenanigans have absolutely tanked Butler’s trade value. What team competing for a title is going to want a guy who has now quit on 2 different teams over the course of his career. Also, Jimmy has a player option for next year, which he would likely opt out of in favor of his last long-term contract. With today’s CBA rules, who wants to pay Butler a 4-year deal when he’s already 35? These things make it very hard to imagine a team going all-in on Butler. At the same time, we are talking about a guy who has dragged 2 Heat teams to the finals in the past 5 years when they had no business being there. He has always elevated his game when the lights are the brightest, so if you are a team that feels like they are a veteran leader away from making a run, you might want to explore this. That’s the only scenario I see a team getting Butler, it would have to be a young, up-and-coming team that tries to get him. This rules out the Warriors, the Nuggets, and the Suns, teams that are rumored to be interested in Butler but to me would be shocked to see. I think that I could see either the Grizzlies, the Pistons, or the Rockets possibly making a run at Butler. Even then, these teams would have to give up 1-2 players from their young core just for the slight chance that it works out and they go on a run? To me, I wouldn’t want to rush the timeline for a 35 year old that has played worse this year compared to previous years when he was out there, and his poor behavior is not exactly something I would want to rub off on my young core. Because of this, I highly doubt that we will see a Butler trade this year. I could see him being moved in the offseason, when his value would likely be lower due to him either accepting his player option or doing a sign and trade. Clearly his future is not in Miami, so why not wait until the off-season when the Heat will be more desperate to get rid of him?

2. What teams should go all-in vs. marginal upgrade?

Keep in mind, we don’t see an all-in move every trade deadline. While the possibilities are out there, more than likely we will see teams around the league make marginal upgrades that will ever so slightly improve their chances, like the Mavericks getting Daniel Gafford and P.J. Washington last year on their way to a finals run. But let’s just say we did get a team or 2 that went all-in, who should it be? I think the Warriors should definitely consider an all-in move, despite the fact that Steph and Draymond have publicly said the franchise does not owe them to jeopardize their future to win now. Fuck that, the Warriors are now one of the most valuable franchises in the NBA, and it’s all off the hard work of these 2 guys. Steph is a generational talent who single-handedly changed the way all NBA teams play, and Draymond was the key defensive anchor that turned your team from a fun watch to a legit championship team. The Warriors future looks murky at best, as the young players outside of Kuminga have done nothing to make me think they will be a winning core someday. Even then, Kuminga at best feels like he could be a number 2 on a championship team someday, but definitely not somebody I would want to build my team around. The Warriors desperately need a 2nd scorer and ball handler who can take the pressure off Steph, so I could see them getting Lavine and/or Vucevic from Chicago. I drew up a potential trade for them with the Bulls, I don’t think they need to give up draft picks in this scenario.

A lot of moving players here, but the Warriors trade in depth for 2 guys who can legit score, and a couple of wings that can hopefully give you just enough on defense. I could also see them making a trade with New Orleans, but the question is who would they target and who would they want to get rid of? That’s why I feel like this Bulls trade is the most realistic option for Golden State, one that would jump them up to tier 2 in the west in my opinion.

What about the Lakers, should they go all-in? Depends, if you have to give up Austin Reaves to get there, I would say no. He is getting better every year and has such a team friendly contract, so I wouldn’t be in a rush to move off of him. But if you can pull off a trade without him that is more picks centered? That feels a lot better to me, but I still just question if they need to make a big play. They have been up and down this year, but when it has been up, they have been right up there with the best teams out West, OKC aside. I think the main thing the Lakers need is a backup center, as well as a microwave type scorer off the bench. These are moves that should not require you to completely gut the roster that can give you a real shot at making the finals if you happen to catch a few breaks along the way. The Suns are thinking of going all-in, being rumored to be interested in Jimmy Butler. The only problem is that Bradley Beal has a no-trade clause, so he completely controls where he gets to go in any trade. Nurkic is the other decent salary you can trade, but he has been absolutely atrocious this year, so who is going to take this guy on without getting multiple 1sts in return? If I’m the Suns, not only would I not want to buy, but I would think about trading Kevin Durant while he is still playing at such an elite level. While you won’t be able to get back all of what you gave up for him, you should still be able to recoup enough that you can attack the off-season with more assets and try to put a completely new roster around Devin Booker, one with more depth and an actual quality starting center. Those are the main 3 teams I think would consider an all-in trade, although don’t be surprised if you see a younger team take a chance as well. Memphis and Houston should more than likely keep it moving but have the assets to make a power move if they want. The only problem is that they are currently both fighting between 2nd and 3rd in the West, so why break up an already good team for the chance to get better. I would want to see it out with the current squads, then try to make a move in the off-season if you don’t get as far as you want this year. The Nuggets are likely to keep the team as is, as the only salary they can move off of to me is Zeke Naji, and nobody wants him. The Clippers are playing very well on defense, the main reason that they are doing as well as they have. A trade could totally shake up how the defense plays, so I would be very hesitant to make a move if I were them. The Mavericks are too injured to me at this point, so it wouldn’t make sense to go all-in. The Kings could make a marginal move, trading Kevin Huerter and Trey Lyles combined 25 million in salary for a high impact role player, but definitely not all-in. I’m sure Minnesota would love to make an all-in move, but who wants to take back Randle in a trade? Same could be said for Jaden McDaniels, who is on year 1 of a 5-year deal. I would love to see the Timberwolves work something out, but it just won’t happen.

Out East, the Bucks are a 2nd apron team, which really limits who they can trade for. I don’t see them moving off of any of their core players this year but might be more desperate for a move in the off-season. The Pacers have been playing their best ball as of late, so I doubt they break up their team. The Hawks and Magic have been full of injuries this year, so like the Mavericks out West, I doubt they make a big trade. For the Pistons, they are probably just happy to be out of the depths of purgatory, so I don’t think they will do too much to disrupt nirvana. Now, there is a team that’s out West that I haven’t named yet: the San Antonio Spurs. They currently sit at 12th out West, only a couple of games out of the play-in game. The upside of making a trade is that you give Wembanyama a chance to make a playoff run in year 2. The downside is that this is likely the worst your team will be for the next 10 years, so you may want to take advantage of the chance to secure a high draft pick 1 more time. I think that’s where I lean but just know that the Spurs easily have the assets to make a big move.

3. Is Cade Cunningham a top 15 player in the NBA?

Cade motherfucking Cunningham man. When he cried during the Piston’s losing streak last year, I knew we would see this level from him at some point. To care that much about winning to the point of breaking down during that streak proved to me that he is the ultimate competitor and that winning means more than anything to this guy. Now, with just a few more veteran role players on the roster compared to last year, the Pistons are currently above .500 and sitting at the 6th seed in the East, a remarkable turnaround for a team that just last year went on the longest losing streak in NBA history. Cade has been the biggest reason for that, averaging career highs across the board in counting stats and efficiency stats. He has better teammates now, so he is finally getting the space to work, and boy has he looked good. If you read my last article, I picked Cade to be an All-Star starter because of how good he is playing. To me, he is easily a top 15 player in the league at this point, with me almost wanting to go as far as saying he’s a top 10. He is still just scratching the surface of his potential, something that should terrify every other team in the NBA. If the Pistons can make the right moves in the off-season, I see no reason why they couldn’t compete for a top seed out East next year.

4.In each conference, 1 seed vs the field, who you taking?

This is tough, because both 1 seeds are at 70-win paces, but neither of them have been to the NBA finals with their current core, let alone a conference finals. That is why I would take the field in each conference. There are already some pretty solid challengers in both conferences, but you have to consider that trades will improve some of the other teams over the next couple of weeks. You also have to consider that injuries can and do happen, so just 1 injury to either Cleveland or Oklahoma City could turn them from the favorite to a potential early exit. While I have been impressed with the dominance by both 1 seeds, I just can’t pick them over the field at this point.

5. What current play-in team has the best chance of climbing out, and what top 6 seed has the best chance of dropping to play in?

I think out West, the Clippers have to be the most likely team to drop into the play-in. I have to wonder if Norman Powell will keep it up, and the defense being this good is something I did not expect, which makes me think a little bit of regression is coming. I don’t think they will bottom out on that end, but I could see them playing much closer to league average the rest of the way. Unless Kawhi is going to consistently play the rest of the way, the offense will not be able to make up for the defensive dip. Who would take their spot? Give me the Kings, who since firing Mike Brown have won 10 of their last 12 and are playing the level of basketball that I anticipated when they acquired DeMar DeRozan. They just seem to out-execute teams late in games now, coming up with clutch bucket after clutch bucket on their way to averaging 123 points per game during this stretch, a number that would be tied with Memphis for the best offense in the league. I had the Kings as the 5 seed before the year because I thought they would have the number 1 offense, and lately, we have seen it. They also have the flexibility to make a move on the margins as I previously mentioned, so they could be even better during the final stretch. Out East, the obvious answer is Detroit. While it has been fun to see them rise to the 6 seed, the chances that they finish there are really low to me. I could see them finishing the season around .500 the rest of the way, as it would be very hard for me to imagine continuing the level of play they have been at lately. They are a young team who had never been here under this current core, so expect some regression to occur. The Orlando Magic are who I would take to claim their spot, as they just got Paolo back recently and should get Franz back soon too. With those two back to finally bring some more scoring to the Magic, their defense should be able to carry them to a top 6 seed.

6. Are the Rockets ready to compete for a ring right now?

I’ll say this, the Rockets play a style of basketball that translates well into the postseason. They pride themselves on playing great defense, something that is necessary to make a run against the different stars in the West. They also are capable of playing at a slow pace, as Sengun has been excellent for them out of the low post. He does a great job of playmaking for others in the half court and is also more than capable of getting his own on that end. If he’s not feeling it on a particular night? Well, you have Jalen Green, who has been on an absolute heater as of late. Should you need him to get big time buckets down the stretch of a game, he seems to be ready to do so. They also have the right type of role players: defensive first players who shoot just well enough to take advantage of teams doubling up on Sengun or Green. Finally, they have a true wild card in Amen Thompson off the bench. He is truly capable of winning a game with a 6-8 minute stretch of basketball. He is pretty much the best athlete on any court he steps on and plays with such ferocity that once he gets going downhill, you might as well get out of the way. He has the speed and length to guard the opposing team’s best player 1-4, often generating fast break opportunities that give Houston easy buckets and allow them to get set on defense again, where they are currently 3rd in defensive rating. All that being said, I don’t think they are ready to compete yet solely because I am a believer that young teams have to lose a playoff series or 2 before they can become true contenders. This is the main reason why I don’t think they should make an all-in trade just yet, as you want to see how different players perform in a playoff atmosphere before deciding who to give up. As fun as the Rockets are, they still have a year or 2 to go before I can consider them true contenders.

7. Is the Pacers improved defense sustainable?

Last year, the Pacers made it to the Eastern Conference Finals on the back of their offense, led by breakout star point guard Tyrese Haliburton. He did struggle down the 2nd half of last season, so there were questions about their chances to make it back this far. Those questions didn’t go away as the season started, with Haliburton continuing to struggle to start the year. He has played better as of late but still hasn’t quite gotten back to where he was at the start of the previous season. The funny thing is, lately it hasn’t matter how Haliburton has played. They have won 8 of their last 10 games on the back of their defense, something that I certainly could not have anticipated. During this stretch, they have been 3rd in defensive rating. They also are only allowing 12.1 fastbreak points per game; only Boston has been better than that. So how have they done this? For starters, they have limited turnovers lately, which is a big reason why they aren’t allowing fast break opportunities. Andrew Nembhard has been putting opposing guards in hell as of late, making your favorite guards play sloppy basketball and forcing them to really work to create separation on the ball. It’s super impressive to me that Nembhard has been doing this, because I could totally understand a player with his talent level being frustrated with his lack of touches on offense. Instead of complaining, he has adapted to become the player this team needs him to be: a guard that can start next to Haliburton and pick up the toughest guard matchups every night, while providing secondary playmaking and elite floor spacing when Haliburton does have the ball. Finally, they have been switching way more than they did last year. This has allowed them to do a better job at preventing opposing ball handlers from getting a head of steam going downhill, forcing them into more 3-point attempts, which have not been too successful for opposing guards. The increased switching on the perimeter also allows Myles Turner to stay down low more often, only really being brought up if the opposing team runs pick and roll. Otherwise, he has been able to stay around the rim on most other possessions, something that has been a huge deterrent for opposing guards who normally like to operate by getting to the basket. So, do I think that they will keep playing at this elite rate? Probably not, but I see no reason why they couldn’t be league average to fringe top 10 on that side of the ball going forward. Don’t look now, but the Pacers could be a real threat out East come playoff time.

8. Are the Celtics going to start looking like the Celtics again?

They always say that teams can coast the regular season after winning a title, and I totally get that. They are coming off a season where they played from October-June, so that can take a toll on players. If you consider that Tatum and Derrick White play in the Olympics as well, that’s almost a full calendar year of playing basketball. So I can understand them not taking the regular season as seriously and mainly trying to stay healthy for the playoffs, especially considering that Kristaps Porzingis was coming off an injury and he has a history of getting injured that is extensive. I get it that the Celtics aren’t exactly world beaters this year. But they are just 11–9 in their last 20 games, and that is just unacceptable.  So why is it happening? Their defense is still pretty solid, ranking top 5 in defensive rating during this stretch. Their offense however has completely fallen off, falling to slightly above league average during this recent stretch. Looking into it, the Celtics are currently hitting on just 36% of their 3s, still a good number but not compared to 39% from last year. With them taking even more 3s than last year and hitting at a lower percentage, it completely explains the drop off in offense. To me, this completely lines up with them coasting the regular season, as 3-point shots take less energy than driving to the basket and finishing at the rim. I would be more concerned if Boston doesn’t pick it up in the next month or so, but for now, I’m just going to assume that this will work itself out and that Boston will be just fine come playoff time. Joe Mazzulla is an absolute dog and will get these guys playing their ideal form of basketball again before the playoffs start.

9. Can the Knicks last long enough to go on a run?

Remember last year, when the Knicks got eliminated by the Pacers in the 2nd round simply because their whole team damn near was out? I do, and it was sad to watch since that Knicks team truly could have competed with the Celtics if healthy, in my opinion. So what did the Knicks do after seeing this? They said screw depth, upgrading the starting lineup and turning into the ultimate Tom Thibodeau team. They currently have all 5 starters in the top 30 minutes played leaders, including Mikal Bridges and Josh Hart at 1 and 2 respectively. It has led to great results so far, as the Knicks are the 3 seed and have played about as well as you could have expected them to play. However, even more so than last season, they are just 1 injury in the starting lineup away from a massive drop in quality of play. So while the Knicks have been fun yet again, this team’s lack of depth truly prevents me from viewing them as a legit contender to go to the finals. They would have to have incredible help luck, and we have seen this story with Thibs coached teams before. Unfortunately, I don’t think Knicks fans will like how this story ends.

10. Are the Grizzlies and Magic two sleeping giants due to injuries for each team so far?

The Grizzlies and Magic are 2 young teams that are getting overlooked by everyone in my opinion. They are both led by young cores who have not yet achieved playoff success, which is probably the main reason for it. However, they both have had players miss a ton of games with injuries and still remain playoff teams, showing just how well both teams are coached. Both teams are top 5 in defensive rating, something that requires a dedication to winning games at whatever means necessary. These offenses won’t remind anybody of the prime Warriors, but they do just enough to pull out wins. They both have guys that look the part in Ja Morant and Paolo Banchero. They create shots for themselves and others at an elite level while providing leadership that typically isn’t seen from players that young. The role players for both teams are excellent, loaded with depth at each position. They both have secondary scorers in Jaren Jackson Jr. and Franz Wagner who can help take the pressure off the lead guys. Oh yeah, and they are finally getting healthy at the right time. Both teams should push up the standings the 2nd half of the season and should be taken seriously as true contenders by the time the playoffs start.

Bonus question: Jokic is the best player out west and Giannis is the best player out east. Are we somewhat overthinking who will be in the finals?

Just wanted to mention this in case we all feel like morons come June. Giannis hasn’t had a healthy playoff run since 2022, where they lost in 7 games to Boston with an injured Kris Middleton. The Nuggets were eliminated in 7 games last year to a Minnesota team that is no longer a threat. To me, if both of these teams enter the playoffs healthy, I see no reason why they couldn’t both go on finals runs, despite it looking like neither will secure a top 3 seed at the moment. That means they will have to go on the road for 2 rounds in order to pull this off, but these guys have won championships before so I am not doubting that they can. While I wouldn’t flat out pick either of these teams at this point, I would not be shocked in the slightest if they both just dominate other teams and secure what would be a super fun NBA finals matchup.

NBA Awards for First Half of the Season

MVP: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

At this point, the MVP debate really starts at who gets 2nd. SGA has been so consistently spectacular all season long, putting up over 30 a night for the best team in the league. He is a 2-way player as well, not that the Thunder ask him to play too hard on defense due to the amount of perimeter defenders that they have at their disposal. He is a guard who shoots 60% on his 2-point attempts, a number typically reserved for 7 footers who take most of their shots around the rim. His mid-range is most people’s layups, and when he doesn’t get open the way he wants to, he is masterful at using pump fakes to get to the free throw line. Opposing defenses know that this offense lives and dies with him but still can’t stop him. Jalen Williams is solid but is clearly not able to do what he does without the gravity that SGA draws from possession to possession. Most importantly, his team seems to really rally around him as a leader. All you need to do is watch the Thunder’s local broadcast affiliate do the post-game interview for you to see this. As the best player, Shai often gets the post-game interview. He waits for his whole team to come over to start the interview, and he often credits them for his individual success. If one of his teammates has a good game and gets the interview, he is right behind them to support, barking and whooping in the background to celebrate their success. I can’t tell you whether the Thunder will win the championship or not, but I will tell you that they are the favorites in a super tough Western conference, and that’s all possible because Shai is one of the best players in the world. Unless we get an all-time run from Jokic or Giannis in the 2nd half, he should win the MVP running away.

Coach of the Year: Kenny Atkinson

The Cavaliers seemed to have hit a ceiling for what they were as a basketball team. Many were calling for the Cavs to trade Jarrett Allen, Darius Garland, or both. I was part of this group, as I didn’t think it would be possible for a team with 2 small guards and 2 bigs to win in today’s NBA where positional versatility is all the rage. The Cavs thought a new coach would be able to maximize this group, and I thought they were fools for believing that. Now, here we are a little over halfway through the season, and the Cavs are the number 1 seed in the East, dominating on both sides of the ball. The main difference to me is that he convinced Donovan Mitchell, an All-Pro guard, to give up the ball more. This has allowed Garland and Mobley to blossom into the best versions of themselves, both having All-Star caliber seasons. Specifically with Mobley, this is by far the best version of him that we have ever seen. While his stats are nothing crazy, his in-game value is massive for this Cleveland team. If Mobley reaches his ceiling, this team will dominate the East for years to come. While he still isn’t there, it’s way better than where we were at with him a year ago, wondering if he was just going to be a very average offensive player. He now has become a high impact offensive player on and off the ball, with Atkinson being the best reason for that. The ball moves more in this offense compared to last year, despite the rosters being essentially the same. While there are some other names that are deserving here, there was no way I could pick anyone other than Atkinson. Nobody saw the Cavs being this good, now the only question is where the ceiling is. Great Job by Kenny Atkinson in year one.

Rookie of the Year: Jaylen Wells

We don’t have to lie here. This is the weakest rookie of the year race that we have had in a while. Because of that, I decided to give it to the rookie that has seemed to have the biggest impact on a winning team from night to night, so I went with Jaylen Wells. The fact that he was picked in the 2nd round and is now starting for a team that is 2nd in the West is remarkable. I mean when I google searched him which researching, a photo from NBA2K popped up before an actual photo of him. He is the exact type of 3 and D wing that Memphis has been searching for years to find. He doesn’t play outside of his skill level, embraces his role, and does it well. If there is no obvious choice, give me the winning player all day. I’m not saying that we will get no All-Stars from this class, but if we don’t, Jaylen appears to be on track to be the best role player here. Dude should be in the league for the next decade, congrats to him on his impressive play so far.

6th Man of the Year: Payton Pritchard

While he has cooled off as of late, overall, he has been the best man off the bench this year. He is a microwave scorer, which is typically the type of player that wins this award. Not that anyone will care, but he has also improved his defensive effort a lot. While he will never be a lock down guy due to his size, he still fights enough to make the defense have to work to score on him. He is averaging a career high in minutes while improving his efficiency, leading to a career high 14.5 points per game. He also has all the aura of a 6th man, as he comes in at the end of quarter and heaves up these half court shots. He hits them at a higher rate than any other player it feels like, but it could also just be that he takes them more than anyone else. Regardless, I have been thoroughly impressed by how well he has played this year. Should Boston get eliminated before the finals, don’t be surprised if they move off Holiday or White to try to make room for Pritchard in the starting lineup. I did consider Amen Thompson here as well, but he doesn’t fit the typical 6th man mold, so I went with Pritchard here instead. While I hate to give the Celtics credit, I had to acknowledge the season that Pritchard has had.

Defensive Player of the Year: Victor Wembanyama

This one is even easier than SGA as MVP. Wemby leads the lead in blocks by far but also leads the league in scaring the shit out of opposing teams’ guards. We have never seen someone with his size move as quickly as he does, turning open jump shots into blocks and 2 on 1 fastbreaks into mismatches… for the other 2. San Antonio is a top 5 defense when he is on the court and fall to the bottom of the league when he is on the bench. The Spurs still have a long way to go to win games, but Wemby’s defense will make them competitive every time he steps on the floor.  Look for him to win this award every year for the next 10 years, assuming voters don’t get bored and find a way to give the award to somebody else.

Most Improved Player: Norman Powell

Usually when an NBA player turns 30, their best days are behind them. Unless your name is Norman Powell, then you decide to put in a fringe All-Star caliber season in year 31. He has been on fire, filling the scoring role left by Paul George and honestly, playing better than George did. I mean 24 a night is elite scoring, something Paul George was unable to do last year, as he averaged 22.6 and still got a max contract from Philly. He was always someone that could get a bucket, but now he has been empowered by Tyronn Lue to create more shots than he ever has in his career, to really impressive results. Is he a perfect player? No. Could he pass the ball more? Absolutely. But for him to be playing this well couldn’t have been something the Clippers had in mind, so congrats to him on a career year that should hopefully lead to a fat contract extension in the off-season.