De’Aaron Fox and the Kings appear to be heading for a divorce after he spent his first 8 seasons in Sac-town.  It was revealed Tuesday by ESPN’s Shams Charania that the Kings are expected to open up talks to potentially deal Fox before this year’s trade deadline on February 6th. Before I go over the potential Fox deals, I wanted to talk about how we got here. From the outside looking in, this one is a bit of a stunner. While they started the season so poorly that they fired their coach, they had been playing their best basketball in January and were starting to look like the team that I had predicted to finish 5th in the West this year. The offense has been clicking on all cylinders as of late, and the improvement appears to be sustainable now due to the sample size and the fact that we expected this level of offense from them before the season. Things were looking up in Sacramento, so why would Fox want out now? For starters, Fox has only been to the playoffs once in his career. I think he is tired of playing for a team that is not in the championship conversation. Sacramento is a cursed franchise, and you could argue that Fox did his job just by helping them reach the playoffs in 2023, their first appearance since 2006. I also think Fox realized that All-NBA was unlikely for him, meaning he wouldn’t be able to land the Bradley Beal sized extension that he is looking for. If there isn’t a major financial incentive to stay in Sacramento, why wouldn’t he want to go to a team that plays in a better market, especially when those teams have a better shot long-term at a title. Speaking of title odds, I think if the Kings had a higher ceiling he would stay. Ultimately, if Sabonis is your starting center, do you really have a shot to even get to the Western Conference Finals, let alone the NBA Finals? I don’t think so, as he is super limited defensively compared to other bigs around the league. So while it’s great that he can get a triple double every once and a while, a team led by Sabonis will never be able to get enough stops, unless they manage to have All-Defense caliber perimeter defenders, which the Kings don’t. Combine all of these factors, and it becomes pretty clear why Fox would want out. I got love for Kings fans despite them being a rival of the Lakers. Their franchise has dealt with a lot of pain over the years, with this being just another chapter in what has been one of the worst 20 year stretches in NBA history. I really hope they find a way to build a consistent winner with players who want to play there, because the fans have shown they will turn out for a winning team. Light the Beam has been so fun, and I hope we continue to see that purple beacon of light going forward.

Okay, now let’s look at the trade possibilities. I really only see 3 teams that are realistic trade options for Sacramento here, although I do throw in a 4-team trade at the end that is super unrealistic, but I would love to see it happen. I eliminated the other Pacific teams from the trade talks, as I doubt the Kings would be willing to deal him to a division rival. I also eliminated any team that I felt had a set backcourt, as there would be no reason for them to break up what they have for Fox, someone who hasn’t done much in the playoffs and is looking for a contract extension. Finally, I eliminated any teams that aren’t in a competitive window currently. If a team is looking to go after Cooper Flagg in the draft, there’s no reason why they should ruin their chances by getting Fox. Now that I got that out of the way, let’s take a look at the deals I crafted up.

San Antonio Spurs

The Spurs were immediately linked to Fox by multiple reporters, so let’s start with them. Like the other 2 teams that I think might go for Fox, they don’t necessarily need to make this move. In fact, I think if you asked all 3 teams, they would have rather tried to pull off this trade in the off-season. Now that Fox requested a trade, the pressure is on to make a move now. The Spurs would probably prefer to have a season where they just narrowly miss the playoffs and get 1 last top 10 pick in the Wembanyama era. If they pull off a Fox trade, the odds of them getting a top 10 pick decrease significantly. While this isn’t the preferred timeline for the Spurs, I feel that they have to pounce at the opportunity to surround Wemby with an All-Star guard. Particularly, Fox’s blazing speed and 4th quarter clutch ability paired with Wemby’s ability to finish on offense and protect the paint on defense make me salivate. Wemby is clearly ready to win now, and getting Fox would finally get him the co-star that he needs to do so. While you wouldn’t win the title this year, you would be set up to be a real competitor next season and for the foreseeable future. For my mock trade, I centered this package around the quantity of picks more than giving up young talent. I just don’t see a scenario where Jeremy Sochan or Stephon Castle are in this trade, as they have such a high-end ceiling as 2-way role players that can help the Spurs compete. I think they would rather keep those 2 and give up more picks, with them betting on players wanting to come play with Wembanyama as the years go on. Wemby is a special talent that the league has never seen before and should be able to draw in role players going forward, especially if they are able to land Fox. With all that being said, let’s look at what I cooked up.

I know what you are probably thinking, 6 1sts?!?!?! Yes, here’s why: Vassell has 5 years on that contract, so unless he pops off in Sacramento, he will be very hard to trade. I like Devin Vassell, but I don’t love him. He has yet to average 20 PPG and has only averaged 4 APG once in his career. He’s a scoring guard that doesn’t score at an elite level and will make 25-27 million a year until 2029. To me, you have to throw in a couple of extra picks based off how bad that contract is. Collins for Huerter is the same contract but gets both players a much-needed fresh start in my opinion. Tre Jones gives the Kings a point guard to help run the offense but ultimately doesn’t have a super high ceiling. 6 1sts allow the Spurs to keep Castle and Sochan while offloading Vassell’s contract, so I don’t think it is an overpay considering how much players have gone for when it comes to picks centered packages lately. For the Spurs, the Fox-Wemby pick and roll should feed families, Len gives them a backup center since they are trading Collins, and Huerter gives the Spurs a little bit more offensive firepower off the bench. The Spurs will still have some picks after this trade due to how much they have stockpiled over the years, so I think they would be willing to give up this many to obtain Fox’s services. The Spurs are definitely in the driver’s seat for Fox, but what about another Texas team?

Houston Rockets

The Rockets have been rolling all season long, but especially the past few weeks. They are 8-2 in their last 10, propelling them to the 2 seed in the West, no easy feat by any means. There is an argument to be made that they shouldn’t make any mores, and I would hear someone out on that. This is their first year being a playoff team, specifically a playoff team that will have home court for at least the first round, if not the first 2 rounds. I could totally understand wanting to see a playoff run from the current group prior to making any big moves. I would counter that by saying there is no guarantee that you will be this good again, and you clearly need a 4th quarter tough buckets guy. The rest of the roster is there, they just need someone who can consistently take them home late in games. Let’s take a look at my mock trade.

You might be thinking to yourself, why do the Rockets only need to offer 4 1sts when the Spurs needed to offer 6? For starters, the Kings wouldn’t be adding a 5-year contract in this one, so there is no impact on the future salary for this team. Also, Tari Eason and Cam Whitmore are young players with potential to improve, while already being great defenders and showing enough shooting ability to be 2-way threats. The Kings have needed perimeter defense for a while now, and this move allows you to not necessarily punt on this season while also having long term upside. Finally, the 2027 Phoenix Suns pick is more valuable than any pick the Spurs are giving up to me. That Suns pick could potentially be a top 5 depending on how things shake out in Phoenix the next few seasons. Booker is locked in long term, but Durant is getting older and tends to ask out of teams. Also, Beal’s no trade clause at 50 million a year combined with the Suns’ lack of picks makes it very difficult for them to improve the roster. I like this deal for both teams but ultimately think the Rockets might wait until the off-season, where they can then use the Suns picks to do a hostile takeover of the Suns. They can offer to trade the Suns their picks back in exchange for Booker or Durant, which I like more for them than getting Fox. Still, if they want to go all-in on trying to win this season, the Fox trade is there. Let’s say though that the Kings are determined to trade Fox to the East. I think there are a couple of suitors out in Florida that would be interested, but let’s start with the more realistic one: Orlando

Orlando Magic

The Magic’s offense has been in the dumps lately. I watch Magic games with disgust more often than not, as they play winning defense in all of these games… only to have the worst offense of any team with serious aspirations. Enter Fox, a 25 point per game scorer who can also create shots for others. This would instantly upgrade their offense, giving them another guy outside of Paolo and Franz who can create shots for himself. Let’s see what the structure of a potential Fox to Orlando deal would look like.

The Magic split the difference between the first 2 trades, offering 5 first round picks in this mock trade. Jonathan Isaac makes 25 million this year, but then 14.75 million on average for the next 4 years. I think that is an amazing contract that can be flipped going forward, but I also love the idea of Isaac playing next to Sabonis long term. Isaac solves a lot of the defensive limitations that come with a Sabonis led team and offers just enough spacing to still be playable with him. KCP is a solid pro, and while the 3-point shot hasn’t been there so far this year, I would trust that it comes back in Sacramento, as Sabonis should be able to get him cleaner looks compared to what he got in Orlando. Tristan de Silva is essentially another 1st round pick thrown in, giving the Kings a young forward who should develop into a solid role player. Finally, Cole Anthony gives them a guard who can start for them and put up points. While he is no Fox, he is a starting caliber guard to me. I think this is the least desirable of the 3 trades so far, as the Orlando Picks would likely be in the high teens to 20s as long as Paolo, Franz, and Fox are all on the team.  The other trades at least had a pick or 2 from other teams, so you aren’t solely invested in rooting against the team you just gave your star player to. I still think this trade could get accepted, but I would prefer the earlier trades personally. Now that we went through the 3 most realistic scenarios, let’s have a little fun with this last one. I call it the chaos trade.

Chaos!

Okay, take a second to digest this. All good? Okay, now I’ll explain. The Heat have to attach a couple of picks to move off Butler, as he has absolutely destroyed his trade value as of the past month. Those picks go to the Bulls, since they are going to take on Bradley Beal’s massive contract. Beal waves his no trade clause to go to Chicago, as he used to play for head coach Billy Donovan in college and should be ecstatic at the idea of being the lead shot taker for a team in a big market. In addition to Beal and 2 1sts, the Bulls get Malik Monk, a great 6th man option who they should be able to get more draft capital for in the future. Let’s shift to the Kings, they give up Fox, Monk, and Lyles and get back Zach Lavine and Lonzo Ball, along with 2 2nds as a sweetener. They don’t get a first for me because they get an expiring contract in Lonzo Ball, which will either offer them cap relief or give them a defensive minded point guard for the future. They also get Lavine, a player that has been averaging around 30 points a night in January. Whether they decide to build around Lavine and Sabonis or decide to unload him for 1sts in the off-season, Lavine is more valuable than any asset in the 3 previous trades. For the Heat, they get rid of Butler and get back Fox, a major upgrade considering that Butler’s value is the lowest it has been since his Chicago days. A Fox-Herro backcourt might give up a good number of points, but they are going to score a lot also. I also think that the Ware and Bam combo on defense should make up for the defensive shortcomings of the backcourt. Finally, the Suns move off of the Beal contract by the graces of God, only have to give up a 2nd to do so, and get back a player that if committed, raises the ceiling of this team to a potential title contender. While the depth is still rough, the big 3 of Booker-Durant-Butler would strike fear into any team that has to play them in the playoffs. The Suns go all in one more time and get someone who has shown he plays his best basketball in the biggest games. Alright, we made it through all of that. I know a 4-team trade looks scary upon 1st glance, but I think every team gets what they want out of this. Let me know what you think of these trades! Is there a trade package you prefer? Is there a team I didn’t mention that you think could make a run at Fox? Feel free to comment on this article what you think or shoot me a DM to discuss further. Thanks for reading, and please share if you enjoyed this post. I’ll be back tomorrow with a recap of today’s game.