Howdy y’all! It’s been a little bit hasn’t it? For those that don’t know, my last laptop started crashing over and over again back in February, to the point where it finally became unusable. I got a new laptop back in March after waiting for my online order that for one from February kept getting delayed too much. Some advise, don’t order a laptop online, even if it means saving a little bit of money. Pay a bit of extra cash to get a laptop right away. Might seem obvious to some of you but what you aren’t factoring in is that I am a dipshit. I’ve spent the last month starting to learn Photoshop and other various Adobe products, but y’all will learn more about that later this year. For now, I just wanted to address why I have been absent in the writing game before I dive into the NBA awards and first round playoff preview. One more thing before I get into what y’all clicked on the link for: my writing muscle is going to take a little bit to get back to normal. I dreaded writing this one for that reason. It’s like when you play pickup for the first time in a while. Lot’s of missed jump shots, sloppy turnovers, jogging back on defense. You have to get those games out of the way before the muscle memory comes back. In no time this will begin to feel normal again, but for now, I’m having to force myself to put this out. Luckily, it’s a very fun topic today. So now that that is out of the way, let’s go over my award selections.

MVP

I went with Risacher in large part because of how he closed out the season. He averaged close to 15 PPG from February on, including a couple of 30 point games during the last few weeks.  He was decently efficient this year, with shooting splits of 46-36-71. He plays really well off the ball for a young player and has shown flashes of being a good one on one iso scorer. I don’t think any rookie in particular stood out this year, so I chose to give it to the number one pick who was so overlooked, that I had to really search to find poster advertisements of him at Summer League last year. Jaylen Wells earned my 2nd place vote due to him starting 74 games for a team that made the playoffs, even if they are the 8 seed. Wells’ defensive ability was evident early and he appeared to be exactly the type of wing that Memphis has been searching for during the whole Ja Morant era. His 3 and D ability should keep him in the league for the next decade, and in a rookie class that is rather weak, that is enough to get the 2nd place for here. Wishing him a speedy recovery after getting injured a couple of weeks ago. For my third place vote, I went ahead and chose Stephon Castle mainly due to the flashes we saw. He seems to be a Jrue Holiday type, playing great defense while providing secondary playmaking and scoring. While the efficiency could use some work, he had enough games to me where he showcased what the Spurs ultimately want him to become. I am excited to see if he can fulfill this potential, and I expect him to be even better in year 2. Wanted to give a quick shoutout to Alex Sarr, as he really improved over the past month after struggling mightily to start his career. I still think he has potential to become a Myles Turner/Bam Adebayo type of hybrid, which would be scary for the rest of the league if he does. Ultimately, his horrendous start made it so I couldn’t add him to this spot, but be on the lookout for him next season.

Defensive Player of the Year

1. Dyson Daniels

2. Amen Thompson

3. Draymond Green.

The Hawks weren’t some amazing defense this year, but I’m not going to punish Daniels for that. It is very hard for a single perimeter player to lead a defense, as they don’t protect the paint the same way a 7 footer can. I am choosing to honor Daniel’s individual season, where he did a great job of stifling the opposing team’s best perimeter players on a night to night basis. With him being the 1st player since 1990 to average 3 steals per game, I had to give him my first place votes. Those steals lead to fast break opportunities, which results in easy points for the offense while allowing them to get set up on defense. While this Hawks season won’t be remembered in glory, Daniels’ season should. I have Amen Thompson and Draymond Green as my 2nd and 3rd place votes respectively because they are 2 of the most versatile defenders in the league. Both are well equipped to guard players 1-5, but for totally different reasons. Amen Thompson is a super freak athlete as James Brown would say. To stand out as an athlete in a league full of professional athletes is super impressive to me, with him making plays on a night to night basis that only a handful of players can possibly make. The ability to play small ball center and protect the rim one night, while holding a player like Steph Curry to 1-10 shooting the next? That is just something we don’t really have in this league currently, so he gets my 2nd palace vote. Meanwhile, Steph’s teammate Draymond shows off similar positional versatility, but by being one of the smartest and toughest players in the NBA. His basketball IQ is off the charts, always knowing where to be on help side and choosing the perfect times to double a ball handler. He is a super physical (sometimes too physical, ask Rudy Gobert, Jusuf Nurkic, or Jordan Poole) player that can hold his own guarding some of the league’s best centers despite being only 6 ‘6. Offenses will make their game plan about taking Draymond away from the play, and even then he will still find a way to get impactful stops over and over again. This year is one of the closest defensive player of the year races that I can ever remember, as the margin is super thin between these 3. The league is currently full of so many great defensive players, and I wouldn’t have a problem with up to 6 or 7 different players getting picked for DPOY this year.

6th man of the year

1. Malik Beasley

2. Payton Pritchard

3. Naz Reid

Malik Beasley finished 1 three pointer shy of tying for the league lead in 3’s, despite him coming off the bench. To put it into perspective, Klay Thompson has never had a season where he made as many 3’s as Malik Beasley made this year. Beasley was a major part of Detroit turning things around to the drastic extent that they did. Payton Pritchard probably wins this award in most years, as he had his best season yet. He brought an offensive punch off the bench for Boston that they haven’t really had in the Tatum-Brown era, scoring 14 PPG on 47-41-85 shooting splits. He had multiple 20 point games off the bench, including a season high 43 against Portland where he hit 10 3’s. Dude is a bonafide scorer, which is why I wouldn’t be surprised if Boston makes some moves this offseason so that he can become a starter. 3rd place for me is Naz Reid, last year’s 6th man award winner. He was once again one of the best bench players in the league, averaging career highs in points, rebounds, and assists this year. The Wolves often finished games with Reid despite having Julius Randle and Rudy Gobert as starters. Minnesota fans love Naz Reid for a reason, and if the Wolves have any chance to beat the Lakers in round 1, it will be because Reid had a phenomenal season.

Coach of the Year

1. J.B. Bickerstaff

2. Kenny Atkinson

3. Ime Udoka

Like the defensive player of the year award, there were multiple good options for coach of the year.  Ultimately, I chose J.B. Bickerstaff because he turned around one of the most depressing situations in the league. They added a few veteran players in the offseason, but not enough where they should have been a playoff team. I had the Pistons finishing 11th in the East before the season started, so it’s safe to say I didn’t see this coming. When Bickerstaff was laid off by Cleveland last year, I knew that he was going to be picked up by somebody. When the Pistons got him, I was super excited to see what the Pistons were going to be in a couple of years. For them to do this in year 1, you have to be ecstatic if you are a Pistons fan. With some more offseason tweaks, I see no reason why this team couldn’t be in the title contender conversation as soon as next year. Speaking of title contenders, Kenny Atkinson was my 2nd place choice for this award. The Cavs shattered everyone’s expectations this year, finishing as the best team in the Eastern Conference this year. Atkinson totally overhauled the offense for Cleveland, using Mobley more and Donovan Mitchell less. This made their offensive attack way more versatile than the past few years, as they had multiple players running the offense. To convince a player of Mitchell’s caliber to give up touches for the sake of the team is not an easy thing to do, and Atkinson did it. Mobley had the season this year that a lot of people thought he would have last year, mainly because Atkinson empowered him to be more aggressive in getting his shots. This team has a legit shot to win the championship, which is still mind-boggling to me. Ime Udoka gets my 3rd place vote after being my pre-season pick for coach of the year. The Rockets surpassed everyone’s expectations, finishing as the 2nd seed in an absolutely loaded Western Conference. They did it without really having a true number one offensive option, something that doesn’t happen that often. Thy finished 5th in defensive rating and were one of the best teams in the clutch all year long, constantly finding ways to scrap out victories. They did a great job of forcing opponents off the 3 point line and led the league in rebounding. All these things to me are a sign of a super well coached team, so Ime gets my 3rd place vote here. When this team adds ***** ****** next year, they will be legit title contenders.

Most Improved Player

1. Deni Avdija

2. Norman Powell

3. Austin Reaves

Deni Avdija was someone I was already considering for this award entering the final stretch of the NBA season. Then, he decided to average 25-10-5 on 51-43-82 shooting splits from March on to ultimately secure my top spot. It’s no coincidence that as his usage slowly increased, the Trail Blazers started winning games. I think they will move off of Jerami Grant and Anfernee Simons this off-season to give Deni even more on-ball opportunities, and he could shock some people with how good he is next season. Deni took a jump last year and nobody noticed because the Wizards stunk it up. People might not have noticed it this season either. But when Portland is in the playoffs next year on the back of Avdija being their best player, people will finally begin to give him credit. I think he has already made that leap and is just waiting for more opportunities, which is why I chose him as my most improved player. Side note, I don’t think this award should go to top 5 draft picks that develop as expected. So for those wondering why Cade isn’t here despite the love I showed him, it is because I always expected the improvement. The spirit of this award to me is improvements that people didn’t see coming, which brings me to my 2nd place choice, Norman Powell. I know that he technically doesn’t meet the games played requirement, but for someone to have their first season where they are considered for All-Star at 31 years old is phenomenal. The Clippers were without Kawhi Leonard for most of the 1st half of the season, which is why Norman Powell’s play was so important. This team finished as a 5 seed in the West despite losing Paul George, a player who has been All-Star caliber up until this season. Someone had to step up to be the number 2 scoring option outside of Harden, and Powell took charge. He has always been a bucket, but to be asked to be the 2nd option for a team with championship aspirations and do so while not losing efficiency? Incredible season from Powell. This may be Lakers bias, but I have Austin Reaves as my 3rd place selection. He went from someone who I thought of as more of a 6th man/3rd perimeter option to someone who I now believe has legitimate All-Star upside. From January on, he averaged 22-5-6 on 47-38-91 shooting splits while dealing with a roster and role that were constantly in flux. He might already be the best offensive player all time that went undrafted, and it should tell you all you need to know that Luka and Lebron, two of the best players ever, will defer to him at times going down the stretch in close games. The Lakers are one of a few teams that has a legitimate title shot, and the evolution of Reaves is a big of a reason why as the Luka trade.

Next will be my All-NBA, All-Defense, and All-Rookie teams. I won’t be writing about my reasoning on these, as there are so many players worthy of spots that didn’t make the cut, and I don’t want y’all to have to spend all day reading this. If you are truly upset about a certain player not making it, DM me or comment on this post and we can discuss. It was very tough to select these teams to begin with, so I don’t think I also need to justify those selections in this article. Just know that winning is a major factor for me when selecting All-NBA. Also yes, you are reading it right that Stephen Curry didn’t make my All-NBA. Without the Jimmy Butler trade I don’t think he would have been in the discussion, so I am leaving him off the team since there are so many deserving players this year.

All-NBA

1. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Nikola Jokic, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Jayson Tatum, Anthony Edwards

2. Donovan Mitchell, Jalen Brunson, Cade Cunningham, Lebron James, Karl-Anthony Towns

3. Ivica Zubac, Tyrese Haliburton, Evan Mobley, Jalen Williams, James Harden

ALL-Defense

1. Dyson Daniels, Lu Dort, Draymond Green, Amen Thompson, Ivica Zubac

2. Evan Mobley, Rudy Gobert, Andrew Nembhard, Jalen Williams, OG Anunoby

All-Rookie

1. Stephon Castle, Alex Sarr, Zaccharie Risacher, Jaylen Wells, Bub Carrington

2. Justin Edwards, Zach Edey, Isaiah Collier, Dalton Knecht, Matas Buzelis

Round 1 Preview

Western Conference

1. Oklahoma City Thunder vs. 8. Memphis Grizzlies

The Grizzlies look like title contenders through the first half of the season, but man does it feel like a long time since then. After starting the season 36-17, they finished 12-17 in their final 29 games. This led to longtime coach Taylor Jenkins being let go with just 9 games left in the season, giving interim head coach Tuomas Iisalo not much time to turn things around. This is a team going in the wrong direction with all signs pointing to them getting bounced quickly by a Thunder team that had one of the best regular seasons of all time. But what would the Grizzlies pulling off the upset look like? For starters, you would need Ja Morant to be the best player in a series that features the current favorite for MVP in SGA. We have seen Ja step up his game in the postseason, so it is possible. He has a career playoff average of 27-7-9 on 45-36-76 shooting splits, so it is possible. Desmond Bane would also have to shoot the ball very well while stepping up as a secondary playmaker. Zach Edey and Jaren Jackson Jr. would have to dominate the paint while staying out of foul trouble, forcing the Thunder to take contested shots in the paint or just scaring them off going to the paint in general. They also need to dominate the boards, giving themselves extra chances on offense to score against a defense that is the best in the league. If they can do that and force the Thunder to jack up 3s, there may be enough variance that they could pull off the upset. All this would need to happen just for Memphis to have a shot to win in 7 games, and I don’t really believe that any of those things will happen.

For the Thunder, this is exactly the type of opponent they would want in the 1st round. The Thunder’s defense is at it’s best when they play teams who like to push the pace the way the grizzlies do, as they have lots of depth when it comes to perimeter defenders. They can press Memphis full court and turn their strength into a weakness, as the need to push the pace will result in sloppy turnovers against this defense. That will lead to easy points in transition for OKC, which allows them to get their defense set yet again on the other end. On offense, the others will be huge for OKC in this series as well as the whole playoff run. If role players like Aaron Wiggins, Isaiah Joe, Alex Caruso, and Lu Dort are hitting their threes, this team becomes incredibly hard to stop. It forces defenses to make a choice: Double SGA, which leads to a 4 on 3, pack the paint, which leads to open shooters, or stay home on shooters, which means SGA gets to play one on one the whole game. It’s kind of like asking a man if they would rather piss, shit, or cum in their pants: there is no win and we will get embarrassed either way, but which way would be least embarrassing.  These are the choices the SGA puts you in, as he is super efficient in creating and making his own shot. They won’t matter much in this series, but one of Jalen Williams or Chet Holmgren will need to step up as the 2nd option in the playoffs. As consistent as SGA is during the regular season, he is bound to have a bad game a couple of times during this postseason run. Will Holmgren or Williams be able to step up in the clutch during those games? The Thunder will take care of this one pretty easily, I have them winning in 5.

2. Houston Rockets vs. 7. Golden State Warriors

This might be the best series in the 1st round. The Rockets are a young team that is uber athletic and well coached, going up against a veteran team that has played like a true title contender ever since they acquired Jimmy Butler at the trade deadline. Let’s start with taking a look at Houston’s path to victory. This is a team that has multiple bodies to throw at Steph, with Amen Thompson probably being the player that will guard him the most. When these teams faced off a couple of weeks ago, Steph had arguably the worst game in his career primarily due to Thompson absolutely smothering him all game long. Thompson is young and has the stamina to run around with Curry all game, while also having the length that will make Steph uncomfortable when he is on the ball. When he’s off the court, Tari Eason and Fred VanVleet are two other defenders who have had some success guarding Curry. If these 3 can contain Steph, this series could end quickly. Of course, that is easier said than done, especially now that Jimmy Butler is on the team. That is where Dillion Brooks comes in. He is notorious for giving these bigger wings trouble, so if he can hold Jimmy to under 20 PPG during this series the Rockets should have a good chance to win. The Rockets have a lot more size than the Warriors, so expect them to win the rebound battle in most if not all the games in this series. They experimented playing double bigs line ups throughout the season, with Alperen Şengün and Adams often playing at the same time. I am conflicted on how effective these lineups will be versus Golden State. On the one hand, they would dominate the small Warriors team on the boards while also making the paint damn near impossible to attack. On the other hand, The Warriors free throwing offense could force these guys to be on the perimeter more than they are comfortable with. If you have 1 big against Golden State, you can switch enough that you can keep your big man primarily in the paint. With 2 bigs, it becomes a lot harder to do that. You also become easier to guard on offense, since both of these guys can’t space the floor. This allows Draymond to play inside and work almost like an NFL safety, constantly keeping his eyes on what’s going on in the perimeter, then choosing the appropriate times to jump a passing lane or double team a ball handler to force turnovers and fast break opportunities. To me, I think Golden State will force the Rockets to abandon this 2 big lineup at times, which is why Jabari Smith Jr. will be the X-factor in this series. He can be another tall body out there who is a good rebounder, while also being quick and long enough to guard perimeter players. He can also space the floor, but this is his first playoff run. Will the lights be too bright versus a Golden State team that has won in the playoffs over and over again? Or will he remain calm and make threes at a consistent rank. I personally think he will, with a 20 point game from him coming at some point during this series. This is very much a battle of styles, as the Warriors play a completely different style of play.

The Warriors play small ball most of the time, with Draymond spending time at the 5 often. Even if Quinten Post is out there for floor spacing, he isn’t a great rebounder, so they will lose the rebound battle in every game more than likely. So what can the Warriors do to make up for having less possessions than the Rockets?  They can force turnovers, where they were 5th in the league at 15.7 per game. They also can shoot more 3s than Houston as they limited teams to the 8th least 3PA per game while attempting the 2nd most. The Rockets were 20th in 3 point attempts, but they were the 2nd best in limiting opponent 3 point attempts. If they can find ways to create 3 point attempts against this Rockets defense, the Rockets likely won’t be able to keep up. With the off ball movement ability of Steph, he does a great job of not just creating catch and shoot opportunities for himself, but for his teammates as well. On defense, the Warriors will be faced with a major challenge. As previously mentioned, it is probably best for them to limit the amount of 3s that Houston takes. The only problem is, that plays directly into the Rockets ability to play double bigs. I am interested to see how the Warriors pick their poison in this one. This is super tough to pick. Am I really going to choose Houston, despite the fact that the Warriors have the best 2 players in the series in my opinion? I’d rather be wrong picking the Warriors then pick Houston and have Golden State win, because then I would feel stupid. Ultimately, I think that we see playoff Jimmy Butler show up in a huge way. I’m taking Warriors in 7, but I can’t say that I am too confident in this pick. For me, I think that these games will be super close late, and despite the Rockets posting better clutch stats than the Warriors during the regular season, I think the playoffs are a whole different ball game. The Warriors will do just enough late in these games to barely win the series, but again, I would not be remotely surprised if the Rockets take it. This is one of those situations where my mind says the Rockets will win, but my heart says Warriors, so I ultimately decided to follow my heart.

3. Los Angeles Lakers vs. 6. Minnesota Timberwolves

The Timberwolves had an up and down regular season, but seemed to be playing their best ball of the year during the last 6 weeks. Julius Randle seems to have finally figured out his fit on this team, providing secondary playmaking while taking advantage of mismatches when they present themselves. Anthony Edwards is coming off his best career regular season, scoring a career high 27.6 PPG on a career high Effective field goal percentage. That includes him shooting a career high 10 3s per game while making them at 39.5%, a career best. He did all of this while still getting to the free throw line at the same rate that he did last year. This is Anthony Edwards starting his peak, and his competitiveness gives the Timberwolves a chance in any series. Rudy Gobert is not quite as good as he used to be, but is still a high impact defender who I put on my All-Defensive 2nd team. The Wolves are going to be a super tough challenge for LA. For them to win, Minnesota needs playoff Edwards from last year to show up every night. The Lakers switched on Edwards a lot during the regular season, but most of those games were with Anthony Davis. I expect the Lakers to still switch at a similar rate, but throw in a lot more blitzes on Edwards to get the ball out of his hands. This is where the Wolves role players will need to step up: can they take advantage of the 4 on 3 opportunities when LA gives it to them? Will Randle consistently make the right read, or will he force up contested shots. Will Rudy Gobert be able to finish consistently at the rim, or will he smoke layups. Will Jaden McDaniels and Nickeil Alexander-Walker be able to make open 3s and attack closeouts, or will the pressure of the moment get to them. On defense, Rudy will need to do his best not to get played off the court when the Lakers go small. If the Lakers have a lineup of all shooters, can Rudy contest shots in the paint while not giving up wide open 3s? I think he has a better shot than he did in Utah, primarily because Minnesota has much better perimeter defenders than Utah did. That being said, they are facing 3 of the best playmakers currently in the NBA.

The higher scoring this series is, the more that plays into the hands of the Lakers. They have 3 amazing playmakers in Lebron, Luka, and Reaves. These guys are great at attacking mismatches to create shots for themselves or wide open 3 point attempts for others. I have no doubt that these guys will be able to get their own shots, so the question will be if the role players can hit their 3s. If Rui Hachimura, Dorian Finney-Smith, Gabe Vincent, and Jordan Goodwin can hit their 3s, this series could be over quickly. If not, the Wolves have a chance to pull this one out. On defense, I have a lot more worry for the Lakers. With Jackson Hayes as their best rim protector, they essentially don’t have a rim protector. That means the Lakers will have to keep Anthony Edwards in front of them, or just get the ball out of his hands entirely. Either way, it means the help defense rotations will need to be great all series long. Ultimately, while I do think that they will have their moments on defense where they look weak, for the most part, J.J. will have these guys prepared to make the proper defensive rotations. I got the Lakers in 6 for this series, as they just have too much offensive firepower for the Timberwolves to keep up.

4. Denver Nuggets vs. 5. Los Angeles Clippers

If you had asked me 6 weeks ago who would win this series, I probably would have had the Nuggets easily winning. Now, I’m not too sure. The Nuggets just fired their championship winning head coach with just 3 games remaining. If you thought the Grizzlies new coach didn’t have enough time to fix things, then David Adelman certainly doesn’t. But if he was able to fix things, what would that even look like? It would have to start on the defensive end, where the Nuggets have been piss-poor over the past 6 weeks. The Clippers tend to run a lot of isolation plays, whether it is James Harden, Kawhi Leonard, Norman Powell, or Ivica Zubac. If it isn’t isolation, then they often spam the pick n roll. Do you go under the screens and hope that these guys miss 3s? Do you  go over the screens and force Nikola Jokic to have to make plays over and over again? Do you have Jokic Blitz to get the ball out of a ball handler’s hands? These will be the things Adelman needs to figure out, and quickly. Ultimately, as Malone said in a press conference a couple of weeks before he was fired, the players will simply have to give more effort on defense. If the playoff atmosphere doesn’t get them to do so, then you will likely lose this series and have lots of questions entering the offseason. On offense, Jokic is going to get his, but what can the Nuggets do to get up more 3 point attempts? The Nuggets are lucky that they are playing the Clippers this series, because they are the 29th team in 3 point attempts to the Nuggets’ 30th. Still, you would want to increase your 3s attempted knowing that the Clippers don’t jack them up, as that can be a way to bump your offense up to keep up with the excellent scoring prowess of Kawhi and Harden. Jokic will need to be super patient in this one, as the Clippers are going to try to have Zubac guard Jokic one on one at first before they start to double. Jokic needs to look for his own shot, but also be patient enough that he can force a double team. Ultimately though, we can talk all the strategy we want, but the Nuggets will need Jamal Murray, Russell Westbrook, and Michael Porter Jr. to step up their level of play. If 2 of those 3 have a bad game in any single game, the Nuggets will lose that game, plain and simple. To me, this is a tall task for the Nuggets as currently constructed, which is why I am leaning Clippers

The Clippers are entering their playoffs playing their best basketball. Kawhi has looked like 80-90% of prime Kawhi, scoring super efficiently while playing defense at a level that I haven’t seen since the bubble. Harden is doing Harden things and has developed quite a pick n roll chemistry with Ivica Zubac, who has had a breakout season in his own right. He has showcased excellent post scoring (something that I always knew was there as a Lakers fan) and anchored a top 5 defense. Norman Powell is a bucket who can play on ball when Kawhi and Harden are on the bench, but also off ball while those guys are in the game with him. Kris Dunn and Derrick Jones Jr. have played excellent defense, shutting down the opposing team’s best perimeter players every night. Heck, even Ben Simmons has given some serviceable minutes at backup center. This Clippers team is firing on all cylinders at the moment, and they also feature one of the better postseason coaches in Tyronn Lue. SO why wouldn’t I expect the Clippers to win? The only arguments that I have heard other people make is either Kawhi gets hurt or James Harden completely chokes. Could those things happen? Sure, but are they actually based on this season and what we have seen from these two teams? No, not at all. Offensively, the Clippers iso and pick n roll heavy offense has worked all season, so I wouldn’t stop now. This Nuggets defense is probably the least intimidating defense out of all the playoff teams, so I think the Clippers should be able to dissect them. As for the defense, I think they are going to trust Zubac to guard Jokic one on one. Obviously Jokic is going to get his, but if he can make him even slightly less efficient, it makes it so the Clippers can stay home on the other 4 players on the court. To me, Jokic has always been someone who is at his best when he can create for others, so if the Clippers don’t have to help too much on Jokic post ups, they should be able to take care of the Nuggets pretty easily. I think they will be able to do this, with my prediction being the Clippers in 6.

(L)Eastern Conference

1. Cleveland Cavaliers vs. 8. Miami Heat

A 37 win versus a 64 win team. I wonder who is going to win this one. I almost didn’t want to talk about this and the Celtics series, but I’m forcing myself to because hey, we might have a Magic or Heat fan read this, you never know. So let’s talk about the Heat. This Heat team had the longest losing streak in the Eric Spoelstra era post trade deadline. Bam Adebayo didn’t step up to become the 22-25 ppg scorer that I was hoping he could become after another Olympics run. Tyler Herro stepped up though, so much so that I almost had him in my top 3 for most improved player. Davion Mitchell has been a revelation for this team, clamping the opposing team’s primary ball handler in most games the Heat play. Andrew Wiggins is still Andrew Wiggins: mostly disappointing but occasionally exciting. Kel’el Ware had a nice rookie year, often starting games with Bam to provide a nice double big lineup. All this being said, the Heat stand zero chance. The only scenario is if the Heat use that weird Heat Culture wizardry to somehow pull this series out of their ass and shock the world. Tyler Herro scoring 40 a game while every Cavs player just forgets how to shoot the ball. I love the concept of the play in, but it is embarrassing that a team this bad made the postseason. At least we might see Duncan Robinson hit some cool 3s.

The Cavaliers are miles better than their opponent in this one, so I’m just going to talk about this team going forward, after the Heat series.  The X-Factor to me is De’Andre Hunter. This team brought him in to guard other team’s wings during the playoffs, and Wiggins will be a good first test. If he can completely shut down Wiggins, that will be a good sign for how he can guard opponents going forward. If Wiggins averages 18-20 PPG, I would be super concerned about the Cavs ability to beat the Celtics in a series at some point should they face them.  You may also see him play the 4 with Evan Mobley at the 5 in a potential Celtics series. The Celtics put Tatum on Derrick Lively/Daniel Gafford often during the finals last year, so I would expect them to have him guard Jarrett Allen during a Cavs Series. If Allen is unable to take advantage by dominating on the glass, I would expect Atkinson to move Mobley to the 5, with De’Andre Hunter playing the 4. Will he be able to stretch the floor well enough? If he can step up in the Boston series, I think the Cavs are capable of beating the Celtics. If he can’t, then the Celtics should be able to handle them pretty easily. Donovan Mitchell is one of the best playoff performers in the modern NBA, so I have no doubt that he will be able to bring his best during this run. I worry a little about Jarrett Allen, as he has had moments where he disappears in playoff games. I don’t think that Cleveland necessarily needs Jarrett Allen to get to the Eastern Conference Finals, but I think if they want to win a championship that he will need to be his best. When he is dominating the boards, blocking shots, and making plays out of the free throw line catch due to opponents doubling Mitchell or Garland, this Cleveland team feels impossible to stop. Darius Garland is probably the least important of the Cavs big 4 to me, mainly because of the amount of guard depth that Cleveland has. Still, his playmaking next to Mitchell is what makes this team go from good to lethal, so him playing well will be important. Speaking off that depth, it will be interesting to see how much Atkinson relies on his starters now that he is in the playoffs. Will players like Ty Jerome, Sam Merrill, and Isaac Okoro continue to see run throughout the playoffs, or will some of them fall out of the rotation the deeper into the playoffs that Cleveland gets. All that being said, it’s all going to come down to Evan Mobley. There are going to be times where Cleveland needs him to make a big three, or attack a mismatch on an iso, or make a perfect pass on a short roll. Can he do this constantly in the clutch against the best teams in the league? I think he can, but we will have to wait and see. As for the Heat series, I think the Cavs will sweep them, at worst they will win in 5. But the bigger question is if this Cavs team can go all the way.

2. Boston Celtics vs 7. Orlando Magic

The Magic are at least a little better than the Heat, but still as disgusting to watch. The Magic have the best defense in the league, but also the 3rd worst offense. I think there is at least a formula for the Magic making this a tough series, so let’s break it down. The Magic allow the least 3s per game in the league, which is huge against a Celtics team that makes the most. If they can limit Boston to under 40 3s hoisted up per game, they might have a chance to win some games. 3 point variance is a funny thing, because the Magic just need to have 4 hot shooting games out of 7 and they could win the series. Now, that is a lot to ask out of the worst three point shooting team in the league. But what if Boston’s plan is to double Paolo Banchero and leave players on the Magic wide open? When the 3s are that open, some of them could start to swish. Speaking of Paolo, he will need to have a big series if the Magic want to be competitive. I thought he played well in his playoff debut last year against Cleveland, even though they ultimately lost the series in 7 games. Now, the Celtics have some of the best perimeter defenders in the league on their roster, so it will be much different. But now that he has experienced the playoffs, I don’t think he is someone who will shrink in the moment. I think if everything goes Orlando’s way, they could push this series to 7 games. However, I don’t think everything will go Orlando’s way.

Boston winning 60 games the season after winning the title is super impressive. Even if they took a slight step back, they still performed at a high level for most of the year. Jaylen Brown is dealing with a knee injury; his status is up in the air for game 1 but I think he will find a way to play. I think this will be a big Kristaps Porziņģis series, as Wendell Carter just isn’t the type of big equipped to handle him in the post. Look for Boston to get him some post touches early in often, allowing him to make the easier shots early so that he can be more confident shooting his threes later. I also think they try to empower Jrue Holiday early for the same reasons. In future series, they will need him to be a floor spacer, so getting him into a groove in this Magic series will be important. I think Boston knows they can beat Orlando without Tatum and Brown dominating the ball, so expect them to try to do so. On defense, they can choose a ton of different strategies to slow down Paolo, and I think they will all work. Guard him one on one fighting over screens? They have the defensive talent to do so. Double him and force him to pass to open “shooters?” The Magic will brick wide open shots. Switch every screen that doesn’t involve Kristaps Porziņģis? I think you get my point. I wouldn’t be as shocked if they lost to the Magic compared to the Cav if they lost to the Heat, but I still got the Celtics in 5. They are the defending champs for a reason and probably have the least question marks about any team in the league since we saw them do it last year.

3. New York Knicks vs. 6. Detroit Pistons

Okay, finally! A fun Eastern Conference playoff series. The Pistons were my favorite team to watch other than my own this year. Cade Cunningham’s leap to superstar was awesome to witness, Malik Beasley had one of the best 3 point shooting seasons of all times, and the rest of their role players were constantly involved in fights. J.B. Bickerstaff has helped usher in a new era in Detroit by bringing back some of the old Pistons values: toughness, defense, and hustle. The Knicks are going to try to stay home on shooters and let OG Anunoby and Mikal Bridges take turns guarding Cade. The only problem is that in 4 games against the Knicks this year, Cade averaged 31-5-8 on 56-52-80 shooting splits. I feel like Cade will go off in either game 1 or 2, forcing the Knicks to have to send doubles at him. The biggest question to me is when they do this, will the Pistons be able to make their open 3s? We have seen Tobias Harris, Malik Beasley, and Tim Hardaway Jr. disappear in the playoffs before, so will those guys be able to hit shots? The Cade pick n roll spam will be in full effect for this series, so it will be up to Cade’s teammates to make open shots. On defense, I expect to see a lot of Ausar Thompson and Ron Holland on Jalen Brunson. These guys are tall, lengthy, and athletic, so they should be able to make Jalen Brunson super uncomfortable. I’m interested to see if they have Jalen Duran guarding Karl-Anthony Towns the whole time, because he has the athletic ability to do so, but has been super inconsistent on that end of the floor. It might be better to put Tobias Harris on Kat and have Jalen Duran guard Josh Hart so that he can help on Brunson and KAT drives to the basket and force Josh Hart to beat them. The Pistons are going to put up a fight, so how do the Knicks overcome these scrappy underdogs?

I don’t think this will be a big Jalen Brunson series, as crazy as that sounds. I think he will have some good games for sure, but I also think he will have some games where he doesn’t shoot efficiently. In those games, how the rest of the Knicks play will be huge. I think this series will come down to how much Bridges, Hart, and OG can take advantage of the open looks and mismatches that they get presented because of how much the Pistons want to stop Brunson and Karl-Anthony Towns. We saw them play without Brunson in March, and they were good… but they weren’t great. They will need to be great in this series, but I think they are capable of doing so. The Knicks should spam the Brunson-KAT pick n roll as much as they can in this one, but ultimately when the Pistons start blitzing Brunson, the others will need to step up. As for defense, I think the game plan is super simple. They need to blitz Cade to get the ball out of his hands early in the possession and force the others to beat you. Will the Pistons maybe have a game or 2 where they beat you because the others make shots? Yes, you probably will. But will the others be able to hit shots at a high enough rate 4 times? That is where I have my doubts, so I’d rather give the others open looks versus letting Cade Cunningham just slice and dice you the whole game. I think that Cade is the best player in this series if I’m being honest, but I think that the Knicks starting 5 are the next 5 best players. At the end of the day, as scrappy as the Pistons are, I just can’t see them pulling out this series. That being said, I do think that the Pistons take it to 7 games. Knicks in 7 for me here, which honestly should be concerning if you are a Knicks fan.

4. Indiana Pacers vs 5. Milwaukee Bucks

Let’s start by saying this: Damian Lillard needs to come back by at least game 4 if the Bucks are to have a chance to win this series, if not earlier. The earliest I could see him coming back is game 2, so I am going to split the difference and assume that he comes back in game 3. Now let’s talk about this series. The Pacers started the year 10-15, with Tyrese Haliburton continuing to look like a shell of his former self just like he did in the playoffs last year, the defense was a mess per usual, and I was starting to wonder if they were the next Atlanta Hawks. The Hawks made an Eastern Conference Semifinals run in 2021 and have since them been a perennial play-in team. The Pacers from that point on went 40-17, playing truly elite basketball the rest of the way. They completely turned around their defense, in large part due to Andrew Nembhard and Aaron Nesmith. Haliburton also picked up his level of play, averaging 19-10 on 50-42-85 shooting splits in his last 40 games. The Pacers truly have been playing like a championship contender in 2025, but how do they stop the Bucks specifically? The same way that everyone has stopped the Bucks specifically: build a wall of bodies in the paint and force the other Bucks to beat you from the 3 point line. The Bucks shooting is… uninspiring, so I would dare the likes of Kyle Kuzma, Brook Lopez, and A.J. Green to beat me from deep. On offense, the Pacers should completely dissect the Bucks. While the Bucks’ length might give them issues here and there in the half court, they have so much more speed than Milwaukee and should be able to score a lot in transition if they can generate turnovers and missed 3s. The Pacers should spam the pick n rolls with Myles Turner, no matter who the ball handler is. Turner’s ability to make 3s at an elite level should force Brook Lopez or Bobby Portis to make a choice. They can either play drop coverage and allow open 3s, or they can play Myles Turner tight off the screen and leave the paint wide open. If Giannis comes over to help? Another wide open 3 for the Pacers. I am very confident in the Pacers ability to attack the Buck’s weakness, but what can the Bucks do to fight back?

The Bucks are lucky to have one of the best 3 players on the planet, so that is a great start. Giannis can’t be guarded by anyone one on one, even someone as talented as Pascal Siakam. As I mentioned, the Pacers are likely to build a wall in the paint because of this. So, it will be crucial that the Bucks make their open 3s when presented. We have seen multiple playoff runs where the Bucks get cold from deep, but we have also seen them make their shots in route to a title run. I really do think that it is as simple as that for the Bucks, as they don’t have any other players until Dame comes back that can beat these Pacers defenders off the dribble consistently. On defense, the Bucks are at their best when Giannis is playing free safety. I expect him to spend most of the series guarding Aaron Nesmith, as they are going to be willing to let him shoot wide open 3s. With him roaming the paint, it may get Haliburton to play more passive, which is where the whole thing starts to crumble for the Pacers. Kuzma has shown he can play good defense when the gem intensity starts to heat up, so  I think he will do a pretty good job of limiting Pascal Siakam’s effectiveness. I know Lopez and Portis are typically drop coverage bigs, but they will get eaten alive if they do so in this series. If Doc is smart, he will adjust and have the bis come up on screens. This will force Haliburton to either pass the ball early or be aggressive in getting downhill. If Giannis is helping off the weak side, Halliburton won’t be able to get off any shots other than floaters, but even then they will be heavily contested by Giannis’ massive wingspan. The Pacers are at their best when Halliburton is aggressive, so you have to do whatever you can to get the ball out of his hands early and often. I think if Dame comes back in game 2, the Bucks would probably take this series. But for this exercise, I am having him come back in game 3. By then, the Pacers will likely be up 2-0, which is just too much of a deficit for the Bucks to overcome. I got the Pacers beating the Bucks in 7 games.

Finals Prediction

Let’s start here: I think there are 6 teams that have a shot to win it all. Those teams would be the Thunder, Cavs, Celtics, Lakers, Warriors, and Pacers. The Bucks with a fully healthy Dame would be in here but again, I have them losing to the Pacers in round 1 due to Dame missing time. If I had to pick the finals matchup with my heart, It would be the Lakers over the Celtics in 7 games. If I had to pick with my brain, I would say the Thunder over the Cavs in 7 games. Because there are super low stakes in this pick and nobody probably read this far into the article, I am going Lakers over Celtics in 7. Luka gets his first ring, Lebron gets his 5th, and the Celtics fail to repeat. We tie the Celtics in rings and Celtics fans everywhere are salty as hell.